NFL WEEK 3 SPITBALL PICKS

If I were you, yeah you reading, I would make my partner and I prove ourselves to you before I laid money out.  There’s no way to sugar it, we were horrible weeks 1 & 2.  The beautiful thing about the Spitball Team, we pick ourselves up off the canvas and start swinging again.  That’s what makes us all degenerates and makes football fun. The putrid start is setting us up for a wonderful comeback.  It’s time to get this train rolling in the right direction.

With that being said, happy week 3 everyone.  Here are our picks and hope you all enjoy the fried foods, casual beers, and football for the next 10 or so hours.  I will kick us off this week.

5 POINT PLAY - Steelers -2.5

I am in no way undermining the Bengals.  I actually have been impressed with them through the first 2 weeks of play.  This seems like a game that will be close and is too easy to take the Bengals on the moneyline.  I am a fan of Burrow and the new Bengals offense, but I believe when it comes down to it, the Steelers defense makes the big play over the Bengals offense.  In Pittsburgh, coming off a tough loss to Oakland, I have my Terrible Towel out today.

4 POINT PLAY - Packers +3

This is not me overreacting to the Packers steam rolling the Lions on Monday Night Football.  I think the 49ers have a very good team, but I don’t like them as favorites over Green Bay.  If Green Bay is going to prove they are Super Bowl contenders, they have to win games like today.  They have to beat the teams that are well-rounded but not quite there yet.  Aaron Rodgers might look like he doesn’t care about anything, but losing the way they did to New Orleans obviously did not sit right with him.  Another close one that I feel hangs right around the 3-7 point range.  I think the Packers win outright, but I will take the points. 

3 POINT PLAY - Falcons - Giants OVER 47

I have to have an over, it’s actually an unhealthy addiction.  It’s a beautiful day for points at Metlife Stadium today.  I don’t have a lot of faith in either team, they have both looked sloppy, poor defensively, explosive at times, and overall not consistent.  However, I think the offenses come out today, Daniel Jones will run and throw all over Atlanta’s defense, Pitts and Ridley will make Matt Ryan and his noodle arm’s life easy, and this game will soar over 47.

2 POINT PLAY - Giants -2.5

Yeah I know, back to back.  The Giants have had tough losses to solid teams.  I don’t believe the Falcons are good at all.  I’ve seen the clips, Matt Ryan is for sure having a tough time stretching the field.  I think the Giants absolutely right the ship today.  I think they might win pretty big.  -2.5 seems like a steal here, but I have been wrong before. Oh, it’s also Eli Manning Day, so there’s another reason. Show up for your legend, Giants.

1 POINT PLAY - Jets +10

10 points? Come on, at least back door this one.  I’m not going to explain this, you know how this one goes. By the time I stop betting the Jets, they’ll be 150 point underdogs.

Brian’s Picks

5 POINT PLAY - Miami Dolphins +3.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders

Hand to God, I’ve never been colder than I am right now.  Up is down, down is up.  When they zig, I zag.  So it goes in this game, but we aren’t buying tickets on the excuse train yet.  After all, September is a built-in mulligan, you could argue none of it counts until the mercury drops below 60 degrees.  Regardless, I think we’re coming up on a big week.  Instead of overreacting to what continued to go wrong last week, I’m doubling down.  Last week I said the Dolphins were a good team, which in hindsight was an unfortunate claim to make not an hour before Miami would go on to lose 35-0 to the Bills.  Not only that, but I picked AGAINST the Raiders for one of my squarest bets to date.  I picked Brian Flores and the Pittsburgh Steelers, I fucked up.  All that aside, I love the Dolphins here.  The more desperate team, Miami is playing this game at relatively full strength beyond starting Jacoby Brissett at QB.  Though Brissett looked like garbage last week, let’s not act like the guy hasn’t played some decent football in the past.  With a full week to prepare with the first team I think he can show a lot more than he put forth against the Bills.  The Raiders, meanwhile, are sitting comfortably at 2-0 while still down Richie Incognito and Josh Jacobs.  Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins.

4 POINT PLAY - Washington Football Team +7 @ Buffalo Bills

Yes, I ate shit betting against the Bills last week, we established this.  Suffices to say I ate shit betting on Washington week one against Los Angeles, but this spread feels too generous towards a Buffalo team that took advantage of a bad day at the office for the Dolphins.  Josh Allen hasn’t looked quite like the Josh Allen people expect this season, and while the WFT’s defense also put forward a disappointing Thursday night effort vs. the Giants, I still think their pass rush is a unit to be feared.  

3 POINT PLAY - Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

I’ll admit, I get a little sweaty laying points with Kansas City.  The Chiefs are a team that’s in this for the long haul, they’re not concerned with style points or statement games at this point in their run.  Very often their lines are inflated because of Patrick Mahomes’ ability to cut a team 50 times before they hit the ground.  Four point games can become 11 point games at any moment, and they’ve earned that respect.  If there was ever a game where you could all but guarantee the full focus of a team that knows damn well it’s great, this is the game.  Do you expect to sit down to dinner tonight with the Chiefs at 1-2?

2 POINT PLAY - New York Jets TEAM TOTAL OVER 14.5 

It’s my site and I can pick what I want to.  No way to sugarcoat it, Zach Wilson looked awful last week.  Though I admit, I talked myself into believing the Jets could cover last week at about 12:45 EST, deep down I knew Bill Belichick eating the rookie Wilson for lunch was a very distinct possibility.  After combining for 20 points over their first two games, the Jets have been tagged with a pretty embarrassing team total this week, hardly favored by Vegas to score two TDs against what’s looked like a very stingy Broncos defense.  Could this game go wrong for the Jets?  Absolutely, but I do think it’s fair to wonder how heavily the Broncos will be invested in this game.  Coming in at 2-0 against what many people are pinpointing as one of the worst teams in the NFL, it’s not unreasonable to think Denver could be looking beyond the Jets to a much tougher game against Baltimore next week.  On the other side of the coin, the Jets and Zach Wilson come into this game with A LOT to prove, and believe it or not, after all of two games I still think Wilson will have a good career in New York.  

1 POINT PLAY - New York Giants -2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons

When I started writing up my picks for today, I had absolutely no intention of taking the Giants.  Frankly, I had no desire to touch this game as everything about it feels like a sinister perversion of our great game known as football.  Yet, try as I may, I simply can’t help myself.  The Giants come into this game with 10 days to prepare, all while stewing over a divisional game they should have won last week.  This is truly an “if not now, when?” game for the G-Men, who should be well-rested and (rumor has it) more willing to deploy Saquon Barkley to his fullest potential today.  I mean, it’s Eli Manning day for goodness sake.  Is nothing sacred?