NFL WEEK 4 SPITBALL PICKS

After an absolutely miserable month of September, the Spitball staff did what any rational, self-preserving adult would do: we called for help. Today, Nick and I are excited to introduce you to the newest members of the staff, Dan Ingham and Tommy Korwan. We can almost guarantee you their picks will be better than ours.

- Brian

BRIAN’S PICKS

5 POINT PLAY - New York Jets +6 vs. Tennessee Titans

If you didn’t know by now, I am the New York Jets.  I’m sure you’ve thought this to yourself as you read, week after week, my picks (my blood) goes down the drain in miserable, undercooked defeat.  When I look in the mirror, I see my team, my cross to bear, my self-inflicted gunshot wound of a franchise.  Three points (3!!!) in the first half over three games for an offense that somehow regressed after ridding itself of Adam Gase and his talentless, old chunk of coal offense.  No confidence, no feel for the game.  You may shield your ears and tell me it isn’t true, but you know it and I know it.  I am the New York Jets.  They say hard times make strong men, and in the words of the late, great Dusty Rhodes, let me tell you something ‘bout hard times daddy.  Hard times came for Joe Willie Namath, hard times came for Brett Favre.  Hard times took the careers of Dennis Byrd and Wayne Chrebet, hard times wore down Curtis Martin until they couldn’t wear him down anymore.  Hard times blew Revis Island down to Tampa Bay, north to New England and back again while Mike Maccagnan raped every Dunkin’ Donuts in the tri-state area of its dignity.  Hard times came for yours truly in the form of a 2-13 month of September, times so hard I’ve thought about hanging it up, closing the curtains.  Oh there were times, I’m sure you knew, where I bit off, more than I could chew.  But through it all, when there was doubt, I ate it up, and spit it out.  My record shows I took the blows, but at 2-1 in best bets, I’m doing this my way bitch.  Chips in the middle, J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets.  

4 POINT PLAY - Kansas City Chiefs -7 @ Philadelphia Eagles

Last week I told you that you couldn’t picture sitting down to Sunday dinner with the Chiefs at 1-2.  Perhaps I undersold the capabilities of your imagination.  Regardless of that, I’m ashamed to tell you that I knew those words were hollow from the second I put them to the page.  It’s fair to wonder after back to back Super Bowl appearances just how motivated the Chiefs are to continue their reign of unimpeded dominance over the NFL.  In moments of weakness one can question their principles, fade themselves, play scared.  The Chiefs will not start 1-3, I repeat, the Chiefs will not start 1-3.

3 POINT PLAY - Miami Dolphins -2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts

Despite the Dolphins doing everything they could to make a monkey out of me, Miami dug deep and pulled out a miraculous cover to save me the disgrace of another 0-5 week.  Despite the late game rally in Vegas, the Dolphins fell in OT to the Raiders dropping them to a somewhat disappointing 1-2 on the season.  What was thought to be a stout defense has been worked over the past two games by Buffalo and Vegas, respectively, but today they may find easier pickings in a banged-up Carson Wentz and a Colts offensive line down two starters.  The Dolphins enter play for the second straight week as the healthier team, and I think that edge pays dividends today.

2 POINT PLAY - New York Giants +7 @ New Orleans Saints

The Giants had their guts ripped out for the second straight game last week, losing 17-14 on a walk-off FG to the Falcons and the increasingly-decrepit looking Matt Ryan, who has the once-explosive Falcons offense humming like it’s a 1993 Ford Escort on a chilly day.  On Eli Manning day, no less…There’s no way around it, this play feels gross.  The Giants have a propensity to blow games late, and the Saints are lining up to play their first home game in the Super Dome this season.  I know this may very well be a sucker bet, but I just can’t stay away.  New Orleans has felt overrated ever since they washed out a sleeping Packers team week one.

1 POINT PLAY - Seattle Seahawks Team Total OVER 25.5 @ San Francisco 49ers

Call this a hedge because try as I might I can never seem to get the Seahawks right.  Should they enter this game as a three point dog, I’d be all over them as I can’t see a banged up Niners secondary slowing Seattle’s explosive passing attack.  Yet, two points just feels a bit too volatile for a Seahawks team that loves to operate in the extremes.  I think the Seahawks will have no problem putting up points today.

NICK’S PICKS

5 POINT PLAY - Minnesota Vikings +1 vs. Cleveland Browns

You better be careful with this game. There is nothing weak about what the Vikings have done so far. Kirk Cousins is probably the most boring human being but the start he’s off to is remarkable. 918 yards, 8 TDs, 0 picks in 3 games. I expect Minnesota to steal one here. I’ll be all over this game.

4 POINT PLAY - Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles

This is a pissed off chiefs team playing what I believe is an Eagles team that has overachieved. I know it’s funny to say overachieving at 1-2 but they have played competitive. Seems like Vegas is trying to fool you here. Don’t overthink Chiefs at 6.5 against what isn’t that great of a team.

3 POINT PLAY - Las Vegas Raiders + 3 @ Los Angeles Chargers (MNF)

There is some magic in Vegas. Derek Carr is making me eat all my words about all the bad things I say about him. If I am going to be proven wrong, I might as well make money out of it. The Raiders keep proving people wrong. They’re going to be road warriors today. Thhhhheeeee Raiidddersss.

2 POINT PLAY - San Francisco 49ers -2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks

I promise you, I would be all over this game. I love this so much, but every time I put money on a game the Seahawks play in I get it wrong. So we will call it 2 points for the 9ers. I like everything going on in San Fran and I don’t have much confidence at all in Seattle and the Bay Area will be buzzing.

1 POINT PLAY - Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 @ New England Patriots

I can’t, not have action on this game. Brady returns to Foxborough. This is gonna be something special to watch. TB12 is going to storm in and shred the patriots. Yes, Bill will be ready, but it just doesn’t matter. I will be on the Brady props as well, over on everything. Patriots fans are FINALLY going to know what it feels like to get shredded by Tom Brady. I can’t wait to see the look on all those Massholes faces.

DAN’S PICKS

5 POINT PLAY - Tennessee Titans Team Total UNDER 26.5 @ New York Jets

Nick is going to yell at me much like last week. Basically betting on the Jets again and I know what everyone is thinking, I’m crazy I get it. But to me this is the best play of the week. The Titans are coming off two big time wins and have to travel to NY which could be a little bit of a let down game. I’m expecting a slow start from Tennessee who might also be without both AJ Brown and Julio Jones this week. The Jets are actually ranked 14th in the league against the run and without the outside threats the Jets stack the box and hopefully contain Derrick Henry to some degree. The Jets will be alive in front of there home crowd and will play inspired football after the embarrassment last week. I expect LaFleur to protect Wilson by handing the ball off a ton and a lot of play action giving him so easy throws . As long as Wilson doesn’t turn the ball over and give Tennessee a short field. I think this is a low scoring game. Tennessee under 26.5 total team points.

4 POINT PLAY - Minnesota Vikings +2 vs. Cleveland Browns

Everyone loves the Browns this year and rightfully so they could be the most talented team in the league. But the Vikings could easily be 3-0. A slow start lead to an overtime loss Week 1 vs Cincinnati. A missed 35 yard field goal cost them a game week 2 against Arizona. Last week they dominated a good Seattle team without Dalvin Cook. The Vikings are also quietly Top 10 in every offensive statistic (yards per game/ rushing yards per game/ passing yards per game/ points per game). On top of that, Kirk Cousins has the 2nd best QBR in the league, I’ll take the Vikings as home underdogs getting the 2 vs the Browns.

3 POINT PLAY - Carolina Panthers +4.5 @ Dallas Cowboys

Panthers played last Thursday night, they get the extra rest while the Cowboys come off a short week playing on Monday Night. Cowboys defense looks much improved from the last few years but even without McCaffery I still think Carolina has the weapons to score points in this game. Better yet I think Carolina’s defense is even better than they’ve played, even though the argument that the Panthers have played against Mills, Wilson and Winston is the reason they’re 3-0 is a solid point. I just think 4.5 is too much, I’ll take Carolina to keep this game close.

2 POINT PLAY - Las Vegas Raiders + 3 @ Los Angeles Chargers (MNF)

This game is in LA but LA is more of a Raiders town than Chargers town. I expect the crowd to be about 70-30 Raiders fans. Both of these teams have gotten off to hot starts both playing some emotional games of late. 2 OT wins for the Raiders, Chargers with some last second drama the last two weeks. I think both of these teams are just about even so I’ll take the points and the team who probably has the home crowd advantage despite being on the road.

1 POINT PLAY - Washington Football Team -1.5 @ Atlanta Falcons

This is the week Washington’s defense finally plays well after being embarrassed much of the first 3 weeks of the season. Atlanta offense is very vanilla and not as explosive as it was in prior years. Atlanta defense is bad enough for Heinicke and the Washington offense to produce enough points to get a win on the road in Atlanta.

TOMMY’S PICKS

5 POINT PLAY - MIA QB Jacoby Brissett OVER 208 Passing Yards vs. Indianapolis Colts

This is my lock of the day. Revenge game against former team and Brissett who I think is a good quarterback hasn’t thrown a TD pass yet. I think he will have a good day today. Sprinkle on over 1.5 TD passes if you like!

4 POINT PLAY - Los Angeles Rams -4.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals

No explanation here. Rams are good at everything. Ride the wave.

3 POINT PLAY - New York Giants +7 @ New Orleans Saints

Do I want to do this? No. Do I have to do this? Still no. Am I going to do this? Hell yeah. My whole life as a Giants fan they have had some good teams and some bad teams. Regardless of if the team is good or bad. Giants always seem to keep it close. I’ll introduce myself into this pick ‘em by taking my GGGGGG MENNNN.

2 POINT PLAY - Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers UNDER 51.5

I’m a huge cowboy hater as I am a Giant fan. Going into the season I thought there defense would be cheeks. Throw in an injury to their best defensive player and I thought it would be worse. They have actually been better with Lawrence out (which doesn’t make sense). I think the panthers Great defense can do enough in this one to limit the Boys and vice versa.

1 POINT PLAY - New York Jets +6 vs. Tennessee Titans

ITS A TRAP! There is no way the Titans shouldn’t be favorited more than 6 pts. I don’t care who is home and who is hurt, the jets were just double digit dogs and got hammered by the broncos. People are going to be all over the Titans at -6. Me on the other hand see this as Vegas knowing something I don’t and I’ll take the risk. Give me jets on a late back door cover!