NFL WEEK 5 SPITBALL PICKS

For those paying attention back home, the Spitball crew might be finding its footing a bit.  No, we didn’t post a crazy high percentage, but Brian did go 4-5 last week, Dan had a few hits, and even though Nick and Tommy struggled, the games they lost were close, so small victories.  Hopefully this is the week where things start to click.  What better week to do so than one with a FULL day of football starting at 9:30 AM.

Brian hit on 80% last week so we will start with him.

5 POINT PLAY - Tennessee Titans -4.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Last week we pushed all our chips into the middle of the table after a brutal month of September.  I stuck with my process, accepted some hard truths and ran over the trench wall of Jets +7.5 like a doomed, mud-caked private in the First World War.  In many ways, I thought myself already dead, but just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in.  The Titans put up a hell of a fight, but Zach Wilson and the Jets found their footing as Randy Bullock lost his.  The Jets were winners last week, and finally, I was too, going 4-1 on the week to put the early-season dumpster fire (hopefully) behind us.  Going for my fourth straight best bet victory, I can’t look anywhere but the team that gifted me the W last week.  Tennessee played hard despite missing both AJ Brown and Julio Jones, and now they roll into Duvall while Urban Meyer is spending nights on the couch.  Maybe the Jags show up for their coach, but it seems a lot more likely they symbolically hand him $600 and turn their backs to their sausages.  “He looked them in the eye and he lied to them, he treated them like a fucking jerk.”

4 POINT PLAY - Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns

The Browns have been absolutely ravaged by injuries, with Myles Garrett, Jadaveon Clowney, Jarvis Landry, Jedrick Wills and Denzel Ward are among the devastating list of players expected to be limited or miss the game entirely.  On a good day this would create problems for Browns QB Baker Mayfield, but while he’s dealing with a torn labrum of his own, the who’s who of injuries could prove disastrous this afternoon.  On the other side, the Chargers will be getting their top CB, Chris Harris, back in their starting lineup.

3 POINT PLAY - Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers UNDER 50.5

The public has been pounding the Packers in this spot, while the pros bet the line down to 3 points after the Bengals opened up as 3.5 home dogs.  I do think the Packers are due for a bit of a letdown after putting up a representative performance on national TV last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, another team that feels somewhat overrated by the public.  We’ve already seen the Packers sleepwalk this season, but still I can’t put it past Aaron Rodgers to steal one late against a team Green Bay (should, in theory) beat.  If the Bengals are going to play GB as tough as I think they will, I think it’ll be due to Cincy’s pass rush exploiting the Packers banged-up offensive line, keeping the score lower than people would expect.

2 POINT PLAY - Minnesota Vikings -10 vs. Detroit Lions

Generally I don’t like laying double-digit points, especially in divisional games, but given the state of the Lions I simply can’t see them hanging in this game.  The Lions could be down as many as three offensive linemen in this game, while the Vikings have to be selling themselves on the fact that they’re a hard-luck 1-3 after losing close games to the Bengals, Browns and Cardinals, teams that are a combined 10-2 on the season.  Again, I don’t love laying this many points in this spot, on this team, but if Minnesota can’t show up here, they can’t show up at all.

1 POINT PLAY - Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears UNDER 45.5

Another game where the line deters me more than the actual situation.  The Raiders come into Sunday’s game vs Chicago as 5.5 point favorites, sitting all week in the ambiguous purgatory of the “Vegas-Zone.”  In theory, the Raiders should have few issues putting away a Bears team struggling to find consistency on offense under rookie QB Justin Fields.  Fields’ task will be made infinitely more difficult as his most-reliable weapon, RB David Montgomery, will miss his first of several weeks with a knee injury.  Am I concerned that Chicago’s main pass rushers figure to be limited? Sure. Am I thinking the Gru Cru will have a lot more on their mind than putting up points all afternoon? Seems likely…it’s not good, Jon.

Dan’s picks

5 POINT PLAY - Niners +5 at Arizona

Love the Cardinals this year but they’re due for a let down spot. In come the Niners desperately needing a win to not fall too far behind in this wildly good division. One thing Niners have going for them is no one has seen much of Trey Lance. I expect Shanahan to have a great game plan schematically to put Lance in a position to succeed and I think he does and probably never gives the starting job back to Jimmy G.  Niners secondary worries me a little bit but I think they’ll get pressure up front to disrupt Kyler just enough. The Trey Lance era in San Fran starts this weekend with a bang best bet.

4 POINT PLAY - Steelers Broncos under 20 1st half

Both teams have top tier defenses and face it, we know one thing is for sure, the Steelers most likely won’t be scoring much. Big Bens time is up in Pittsburgh and he at this point is holding this franchise hostage. Teddy looks like he will be cleared to start but I look for this game to get off to a slow start and be a ugly defensive battle all the way through. The total has gone under in all 4 games for both of these teams this season so let’s hope that trend continues at least for the first half. 

3 POINT PLAY - Patriots -8 at Texans

Patriots desperately need a win and after a couple of tough losses no better time then to see Houston next up on the schedule. Belichick dominates rookie QBs and Mills is god awful. I expect a dominating performance by New England from start to finish.

2 POINT PLAY - Bills ML (+125) at Chiefs 

This is just pure value to me here. The Bills are looking for revenge from last years AFC title game and since their week 1 loss to Pittsburgh have been dominate, although against lesser opponents. I think they’re rested and have the pass rush to get after Mahomes. KC defense has struggled this season ranking 31st in points allowed while the Bills have scored 35+ in each of the past 3 games. I expect the Bills to have no trouble putting up points in this game if they have to trade punch for punch with the KC offense. I’ll take the better defense and the team who probably feels like this game means more than just another regular season game. To me you can take the points but let’s go Buffalo with an outright winner on the ML + 125. 

1 POINT PLAY is Dan’s Prop play of the week:

Dawson Knox over 36.5 receiving yards and anytime to score a TD (+180)

Knox has a touchdown in 3 straight games and over 35 yards in 3 of the 4 games this season. A game that should be very high scoring and have a potential Big 12 track meet type feel, I love Knox to control the middle of the field against a weak KC defense. KC vs tight ends this season:

Ertz 6 catches 60 yards

Goedert 5 catches 56 yards and a TD

SD TEs combined- 3 catches 48 yards 

Andrews 5 catches 57 yards 

Cleveland TEs combined- 7 catches 120 yards 

Tommy’s Picks 

I want to first apologize for my picks last week. 2 for 5 overall and missing my 4pt and 5pt play is not a good way to kick off my selection season. The Dolphins offense looked abysmal in the second and third quarters and their defense couldn’t get off the field leading to limited chances for Brissett. That one hurt. I’m now picking up extra shifts at my local 5 and dine to make up for the loss. Anyways, enough excuses…here are my picks for week 5, hopefully they have more of a metaphorical Justin Tucker game winner rather than a Nick Folk this week with my picks. 

5 POINT PLAY - Packers - 3

This line is an overreaction to the bengals winning 2 straight. Against mediocre teams. Sure steelers D is good but they were hurt and the Steelers offense was terrible. Then the bengals almost lost to the Jags who are a train wreck. This is a team that is only 3 weeks out from losing to Andy dalton and Justin fields combined throwing 110 yards for the bears. I’m simply not a Bengals believer, but I am indeed an Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams believer. This one won’t be close. Free money will be available on every single Davante Adams prop. Receptions, yards, TD’s…he was too quiet last week.

4 POINT PLAY - Titans -4.5

Just like Urban Meyer having his way with women in Ohio, the Titans will have their way with the Jags in this one. I don’t think the Titans can realistically lose this one, regardless of who is healthy for them. It’s week 5 but to me this feels almost like a make it or break it game for the Titans (although with their division that simply isn’t true, but shhhhh). As a former division 3 football player we used to get distracted during practice when stuff happened on the weekend to teammates/coaches. Like whether or not out starting full back got with a girl or a guy. You could feel the practice intensity downshift. I’m not sure if that translates to the NFL or not, But Hey it’s 2021 so (not saying name) fullback can do what he wants, Urban Meyer can do what he wants, and Derrick Henry can do what he wants…which will involve probably scoring 3 TD’s. 

3pt play Giants +7.5

Last week I took the Giants covering at +7 as my 3 pt play and it hit. So why fix what’s not broken? The saints have a much better defense than the Cowboys, but Daniel Jones was able to throw it up and down the field almost at will. He looks really comfortable this year and it’s refreshing to see him make pretty much all the right decisions. He really is a dual threat. Sam Darnold, yes Sam Darnold just had a good day running the ball against the Cowboys. Look for Daniel Jones and the exciting play making of Jon Ross, Saqoun Barkley, and Rookie Kadavius Toney to keep the giants in this one. Saqoun hasn’t had one of his monster games yet and the Giants secondary which is the biggest strength of this team on paper has underperformed. If the secondary plays to their ability and Saqoun does Saquon I could even see the Giants stealing one here. But like most NFC East games this will be a close one, so give me those points. The GGGGG MEN!

2 POINT PLAY - Over 40.5 Broncos vs steelers

A couple of years ago I followed a trend of A west coast time zone team traveling to the East coast and playing a 1pm game and the Over hitting. It was very successful, relatively free money. The Broncos are not quite a west coast time zone team as they are only 2 hours behind, but they are traveling East and playing at 1. Aside from the 2 hour difference compared to the 3 hour difference this games Total is also the lowest of the week at 40.5. This scares me into it being a trap and people seeing the low total and wanting to hammer the over. Meanwhile Vegas will sit back, kick their feet up and watch all us lose money as this one ends 3-0. For this reason it’s only my 2pt play, but hopefully the trend picks up wHere it left off a couple seasons ago. Plus who likes picking unders?

1 POINT PLAY - Jets +3.5

Similar to my 3 pt play “Why fix what’s not broken?”. I picked the Jets covering as my 1 pt play last week and I’ll do it again. Idk if playing in London favors the Falcons who are more of a veteran team with Matt Ryan, or the Jets who just came off an exciting win with a young coach and young QB. For that reason I’ll just take the points. I could see the Jets getting smoked here again and coming back down from their high, especially with Calvin Ridley due for a monster game. But I’ll take the Bloody Jets.

Nick’s picks.

There’s no sugar coating it, I have not been great but I’m going to bounce back this week. Let’s ride.

5 POINT PLAY - Chargers -2.5 

This Chargers team is starting to look really dangerous.  The Chiefs are not dominating as planned and the AFC West could be more open than originally planned.  The Browns are a good football team but I just don’t think they have found their footing yet.  They are 3-1 but I am not sold on Baker yet.  Justin Herbert’s weapons in Kenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Ausitn Ekeler are playing at an insane level.  I think the Browns defense will have their hands full.  Chargers at home under a Field Goal.

4 POINT PLAY - Patriots -8

There is not much hope for Houston.  Nothing seems to be going right.  Offense can’t move the ball well, defense has not stopped anyone, and Bill Belichick is coming to town.  It is going to be a very long day for this offense.  I’m not sold on the Patriots offense at all, but the Texans are not a team that is going to challenge them.  Yes, 8 is a lot of points, but this has blowout potential.  Uncle Bill is going to make Davis Mills' life miserable today.

3 POINT PLAY - 49ers +5

I know what you’re thinking, no I don’t think this is a big breakout game for Trey Lance.  I have said countless times that I love this 49ers team.  This looks to me like a ‘Pros vs Joes’ game.  Seems like the bookmakers are baiting everyone to ride this fun, young, undefeated Cardinals team.  I expect a hard-nose, tough, division game here.  49ers cover the 5.

2 POINT PLAY - Vikings -10

This one does not take too much thinking.  The Lions are a very beat up team.  Injuries all over the roster.  Not to mention a roster that was not very good to begin with.  Another blowout incoming.  Don’t jump all over points here, Vikings will win huge.

1 POINT PLAY - Raiders -5.5

I think I’m addicted to betting on this Raiders team.  Week after week the lines make me foam at the mouth.  I love them playing at home, and I don’t trust anything about this Bears team.  Matt Nagy keeps buying himself more time.  Justin Fields will be a good NFL Quarterback eventually, but it’s going to take some time.  In Vegas, Gruden and the Raiders will show that they are going to hang in the AFC West and advance to 4-1.