NFL Week 6 SPITBALL PICKS

Props to the fellas at Spitball for stringing together some winners last week.  Brian is the hot hand right now so if you’re looking for some good picks, that’s the guy to ride.  Tommy and Dan gave a few winners last week as well.  For me, well I am having the worst picks year of my life, of course when I decide to contribute in a weekly picks article.  But as I have consistently said, I will answer the bell Sunday morning and play.  Let’s do it again, and since I have to answer for my putrid first 5 weeks, I will bat in the leadoff spot.

Nick’s Picks

5 - POINT PLAY - Bengals -3.5

My blazing hot take of the season so far is that the Bengals are a really solid football team this year.  They are a few steps away from being competitors in this league.  I don’t think they will have much trouble against the Lions in Detroit.  Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase both look really good.  I know the Lions have been keeping games somewhat close but I am taking the Bengals this week.

4 POINT PLAY - Rams @ Giants OVER 48.5

Honestly, I don’t know how Daniel Jones is playing this week.  The hit that he took was very scary.  I am not his biggest fan, but the guy is an absolute warrior.  There’s no doubting the competitive nature of this kid.  I am expecting a ton of fireworks.  Kadarius Toney was electric every time he touched the ball last week.  The Giants defense is really banged up so I expect the Rams to score pretty easily.  In order for the Giants to stay in this game they will have to score.  This one should be fun to watch as I am taking the over.

3 POINT PLAY - Broncos -4

I have explained to all of you at home that I love betting on the Raiders.  This strategy has not gone to plan.  After this past week with the firing of head coach Jon Gruden and the Raiders front office having to answer a ton of questions, I don’t see them playing well today.  A huge swing game in the AFC West as both teams are 3-2.  The tough atmosphere of mile high will play a difference.  The Broncos are going to get a HUGE win here.  Buckle up for the AFC West the rest of the way.

2 POINT PLAY - London Jaguars +3

The Jaguars in London essentially is a home game at this point.  I’ll be the first to admit that Vegas knows more than I do, but this spread I really do not understand.  The Dolphins haven’t really done much to prove that they should be favorites.  The return of Tua will be interesting for sure.  But after a year of no American football in London, the London Jaguars return home.  I will be on the Jaguars outright as well, but we all know I can use the 3 points.  LONDON BABY.

1 POINT PLAY - Chiefs -6.5

There is nothing about this Chiefs team that has been impressive.  Another thing that hasn’t been impressive is Washington’s defense.  I believe the Chiefs are very one dimensional with their offense.  Their offense relies on explosive plays.  Washington’s defense has not been able to stop much so far this season.  So I believe the Chiefs explosive play ability will crush the Football Team’s defense.  If you’re into props, I would play Mahomes and Tyreek’s over on yards and Kelce to score.

Tommy’s Picks

Week 5 recap: 2-2-1 6 points

Overall: 4-5-1 10 points

Although I went 2-2-1 on the week, I felt pretty good with how things turned out. Aside from the Giants whole team getting hurt and losing me that selection. The only other loss was the London game which was my 1 point play for a reason. The Packers push prevented a great day. Moving on…

5 POINT PLAY - Chiefs -6.5 vs Washington 

A 7 point home dog for the Washington Football team would usually have me drooling, especially with Coach Rivera at the helm. I think Rivera is a top 5 coach in this league. I honesty think the WFT still had a chance at making the playoffs, their Defense is stacked (on paper) but has been brutal, while their offense is more than serviceable. If the defense wakes up, they could go on a nice mid-season win streak. Unfortunately, that will have to happen next week as Patrick Mahomes will be in town this week. I don’t know what the exact statistics are but I’m pretty sure Mahomes and the Chiefs are nearly undefeated the week after losing a game.  They already lost back to back earlier this season and I just can’t see them doing it again.  Now, covering on the other hand will be tough in Washington, but you can’t forget about the chiefs secret weapon…Jackson Mahomes tik toks. I have no idea what that’s supposed to mean but we will roll with it. Eventually the chiefs will have to start being dominant again right?? Monster game from Hill, Kelce, Mahomes inbound…hit those props. 

4 POINT PLAY - Chargers @ Ravens over 51.5

Well we have an opportunity to keep up with the trend that cashed last week  for me.  Two west coast teams are traveling to the east coast and playing at 1pm. The Chargers are going to Baltimore and the Rams are going to New York. The Baltimore total is a little inflated because of the game the Chargers just had and the Ravens coming off a short week having played Monday night. I still think the over hits. The best value might be found in a “live bet” at halftime. Usually in this west coast to east coast trend most of the points are scored in the second half as the Defense tires out. The Giants on the other hand just lost a huge chunk of their starting offense, but fortunately Daniel Jones should be good to go. I expect him and the Giants to find a way to get rid of the ball quickly and gather some momentum. The over is also set pretty high for a game against the all mighty Rams defense for an offense that just lost its starting RB, QB, and potentially first 3 WR on the depth chart. I love finding Vegas traps and this might be one. Public will probably be all over the under but we might see big money on over. 

3 POINT PLAY - Giants vs Rams over 48.5

See above.

2 POINT PLAY - Chargers +3.5

Short week for Baltimore. Momentum for the chargers. Piggy backing off of me thinking this game will have a lot of points (for my 4pt play) I believe a high scoring game favors the chargers. Ravens love to run control the clock and play D. Chargers like to throw it everywhere and I mean everywhere. The AFC is filled with young QB’s and we get to watch two of them battle it out in this one. I think it will be must watch tv and that’s why I’m taking the points here as it will be a close one.

1 POINT PLAY - Lions +3.5 

I’m starting to like this Detroit team and I can’t really put my finger on why.  I do know that I heavily dislike the Bengals. The Bengals Defense is over performing. Their offense is obviously legit, but I don’t think it’s an effective strategy to rely on Chase hauling in a 60+ yard catch to bail the Bengals out in a drive. For some reason I get possessive over guys that I liked in college that perform well in NFL and then others jump on the bandwagon. It almost makes me stop liking the player. Justin Jefferson, Joe Burrow, jamarr chase…I loved all of them in college…now that others like them they are trending down in my book. I’m happy with the spread being at 3.5. I think the Lions will win outright but I’m always a fan of a safety net with the points. Really hope my opinion on Bengals comes true and we can make some money off them being a little too hyped right now.

Dan’s Picks

5 POINT PLAY - Browns -2.5 vs Cardinals

I thought Arizona was due for a loss last week and they escaped the Niners. So I’ll try again this week! Arizona is without HC Kliff Kingsbury due to covid and a few other coaches, that will definitely play a part in this game. The Browns defense was just shredded after being dominant most of the year. I think they’ll rebound in what is a crucial game for the Browns to get back on track. 

Prop play of the week and 4 POINT PLAY - OBJ over 3.5 receptions/ over 47.5 receiving yards

At least I won something last week, with the Dawson Knox prop plays. This week, I expect a heavy dose of forced passes to OBJ. Arizona can put up points in bunches and Cleveland could find itself in another shootout like last week. No Nick Chubb could mean more pass attempts for Cleveland but even with that I think Cleveland knows if OBJ isn’t more involved in the offense this thing  can blow up quickly. I think Stefanski will design some easy passes for Mayfield to get Beckham involved early on. I’d also look to play some Beckham anytime TD too.

3 POINT PLAY - Patriots +3.5 vs Cowboys

Cowboys are the biggest story of the season. Everyone is on the bandwagon and rightfully so. The offense is tremendous and the defense looks the best it has in years. A trip to Foxboro where the Patriots are home underdogs and kind of being written off a little after a bad performance against David Mills and the lousy Texans. Give me Mac and cheese and the Pats at home with the points to keep this game close.

2 POINT PLAY - Raiders +4 at Broncos

This Raiders team has every excuse to come out and not show up this week with everything going on there in Vegas. However I think it might help bring the team together a little bit. The Raiders are definitely not as good as we might have thought after the 3-0 start but I think this team will be in the wild card hunt all season long. This game is a big one for both teams. I’ll back the Raiders in hope they play inspired football to prove that the events that happen this week will not define this teams season. 

1 POINT PLAY - Seahawks +5 at Steelers

Genooooo!!! He actually didn’t look bad last week in relief of Russel Wilson, driving the Seahawks down the field easily on a 90+ yard drive the first time he touched the ball. To be honest I’m not too worried about the Seattle offense with Geno Smith at quarterback, however the Seattle defense stinks, letting up 4 straight games of 450 total yards . Seattle’s beaten up offense against a great Steeler defense. A bad Steelers offense who can maybe finally get going against one of the league's worst defenses. Everything says take the Steelers so that’s exactly why I’m taking Seattle with the points. Geno is 5-0 ATS in his last 5 starts, let’s keep that trend going.

Brian’s Picks

5 POINT PLAY - Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Just when they thought I was out, I pull them back in… Who’s they you ask? Doesn’t matter, what matters here is for the second straight week I’ve had a stone cold conversation with the board and walked away with the last word, posting back to back (and belly to belly) 4-1 weeks. Legends are made and earn candy bars in October, the lights just shine a little brighter when the air turns crisp. The boys are asking if my picks can come out early, and you need not fret. The wagon is rolling through to a town near you, the money train has left the station. People ‘round the world, join hands.

Few games are more in my wheelhouse than this one. This is the preverbal beach ball floating over the plate. Last week, I was robbed of 5-0 (and almost of my ticket in my lone survivor pool) by the incompetent nincompoopery of the Minnesota Vikings. This was truly shell-shocking stuff, dominating the Lions in a sleepy, yet clinical affair all afternoon, the Vikings dropped the ball (literally) when Alexander Mattison put the ball on the ground in Vikes territory leading to a Detroit score and 2-point conversion to take the lead. The preceding and ensuing madness that led up to the Vikings 19-17 win actually drove the hardened, knee-cap munching Dan Campbell to tears. It was a disenchanting image that will surely linger on the collective American conscience like a dark cloud for decades to come.

Campbell going full Johnny Sack is largely irrelevant to the game at hand (he’s a very emotional man, loves his kids), yet it sets the scene for the fact that the Vikings are officially in the doghouse. The Panthers meanwhile lost a defensive push-and-pull with the Eagles last week and find themselves installed as home underdogs this week. I think they find a way to get back on track against a Vikings team that seems to attract chaos like a magnet.

4 POINT PLAY - Washington Football Team vs. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 54

As I’ve been saying on an almost weekly basis, I can’t see the Chiefs falling to 2-4 on the year. Clearly the public agrees, as the Chiefs appear to be taking a healthy majority of the action and come into a road game favored by a touchdown. Respect, despite their struggles, is still on the side of Kansas City, and rightfully so. The Chiefs have nothing left to prove in the regular season, similar to the Patriots recent run of dominance, let’s not kid ourselves over a mediocre start by a team that’s capable of running like a jet engine. There’s cause for concern, but panic, I don’t think so. Yet, I’ve also mentioned in the past that over the past two seasons, the Chiefs really don’t seem to cover games at a convincing clip. Call this getting cute, but in a game that feels like it should have shootout written all over it, I’ll wager that the defenses actually come to play, at least for a bit, this afternoon.

*In reality, a teaser of Panthers, Chiefs and WFT/KC Under feels like what I’d actually do, but for the sake of the picks, we play it straight here.

3 POINT PLAY - New England Patriots +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys

I admit, this feels like a gross one. Dallas has looked legitimately good this year, despite the notable handicap of employing Mike McCarthy as their head coach. Dak is humming, Zeke and Tony Pollard look like the best backfield in the game, and the defense looks young, hungry and talented. They’re fresh off clobbering the Giants in a national(ish) spot, while the Patriots were the dogs of everybody’s redzone last week almost losing to the lowly Texans. The public was so impressed by last week the advanced line jumped from Dallas -1 to Dallas -3.5, where it currently sits as of press time, and that’s precisely when I go the other way. Just hold your nose and tell yourself you’re getting points on Belichick vs. McCarthy, trust me it helps.

2 POINT PLAY - Baltimore Ravens -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Another game where the public is pounding the visitors after last week’s dizzying affair between the Chargers and Browns lit up the Nation’s 4 PM window. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson had a heart-pounding victory of their own on Monday Night, but it seems as if the rash of injuries the team has faced and their less than inspiring first half still has the masses balking at backing Baltimore. Getting the best football player on planet Earth (today) favored by less than a FG at home is gambling principles 101 in my book.

1 POINT PLAY - Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers UNDER 44

Did I like rooting for an under in a game featuring Aaron Rodgers last week? Not necessarily, though for three or so quarters it really felt as though you couldn’t pin a game any better. It took about a million missed kicks to get us over the line, but as I’ve alluded to before, that’s why we tease. For the sake of the picks, every instinct in my body tells me to go back to the well with the under. The Bears offense simply does not look functional under Justin Fields, which breaks my heart as a proud Ohio State supporter, but you’re nuts if you think I won’t exploit this situation until Matt Nagy takes off the 18 training wheels he’s placed on his rookie QB. It’s hard to see how Chicago consistently puts up points against a very competent team that isn’t playing under the specter of a disgraced head coach, as they were last week.