NFL WEEK 7 Spitball Picks
Photo Credit: The Boston Globe
Happy Football Sunday everyone. We are at the point in the NFL where every team has multiple significant injuries and the playoff picture is fully a factor. The week will not be the same without Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Henry, possibly Kyler Murray, The Buccaneers on a bye, and of course, the Jets but they already ruined my football weekend. We are blessed to have Christian McCaffrey return hopefully. As the playoff runs begin, sit back, relax, enjoy the football, and let’s hit on some picks.
Nick’s picks.
5 point play - Bengals -130
The Bengals will bounce back after a horrific loss to the Jets. In a tough division game at home the Bengals will make a big statement today. I love this small home favorite here. I’m not going to lay the two points but the money line has solid value. Also, another big day from Burrow and Chase coming.
4 point play - Ravens -6
I truly believe that the Ravens are the best team in the AFC. They host the Vikings today who have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Ravens will have an absolute field day on the ground. Too tall of a task for Minnesota on the road, Ravens win with ease.
3 point play - Broncos +10
I am currently a believer in the Dallas Cowboys. I took them last week without Dak and they made me look like a genius. I also believe they will win today but 10 points is just too high of a number for me. Denver will be a tough matchup for Dallas. I am really looking forward to the WR/Corner matchups both ways. That Denver defensive backfield is one of the better units we have seen in a couple of seasons. A ton of young talent with a lot to prove against a great Dallas offense.
2 Point Play - Vikings at Ravens Over 50.5
If you are nervous to have double barrel action on a game don’t be. I see this game being wide open. The Ravens are going to pound the rock against this Vikings defense and that will open up everything. The Vikings explosive offense will also have a big day. Dalvin Cook has not really looked like himself but this week he will break out.
1 Point Play - Titans at Rams Under 52.5
This Titans offense will STRUGGLE without King Henry. The Rams defense is really good, and they just added Von Miller. I see the Titans really trying to slow this game down and manage the clock. I actually believe that 52.5 is WAY too high and the score won’t come very close. I believe the Titans defense will step up and keep them in the game as well. This will be another hard fought game that will sit right around the spread. The Rams are -7.5 and I see this around a 20-13 game. I don’t see a lot of points here, boring? Yes, but this game stays under.
Brian’s Picks
5 POINT PLAY - Green Bay Packers +7 @ Kansas City Chiefs After a piss poor September, the month of October was everything we could have asked for. Despite three consecutive 3-2 weeks to close the month, I’m confident in saying we were all over weeks 4-8 going 17-10 (63%) to bring our record on the year back to a somewhat-respectable 19-21. As the weather cools, the games heat up and we’ll see if the same holds true for obscure internet handicappers. The Packers come into this game in something of a shit-storm, as QB Aaron Rodgers landed himself on the COVID list and generally seems to have misled some people in the past few months. Luckily for him he has the day off to browse Web MD for sound medical advice, but his team won’t feel as fortunate heading to KC. 2020 first round pick Jordan Love gets his first start at QB for GB, and while we always knew his debut would be controversial, this could be the best situation possible for him. Hear me out: yes KC is a damn tough place to play and the Chiefs are going to become the Chiefs at some point again. You can doubt Mahomes and Andy Reid all you want, I simply choose not to. Yet, Jordan Love is entering this game with zero expectations. The Packers didn’t bench Rodgers. They aren’t going in a different direction “for the good of the franchise.” This is the only time Jordan Love can make his debut and not be the main topic of conversation. He gets as little pressure possible put on his shoulders and the opportunity to QB what I think is the better overall team. And let’s be clear about one thing, Jordan Love is 100% a first-and-last name person. Some guys are last name people, some guys are first name people, but a rare beast is both. Jordan Love is such a creature.
4 POINT PLAY - Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos UNDER 49.5
Things began to turn around when the under’s started getting hammered, no reason not to keep swinging. The Cowboys defense has been one of the surprise stories of the 2021 NFL season, meaning the high spread could be attainable even though I lean Broncos at +9.5. The main reason for the lean on Denver and, in the end, the under, is the lingering uncertainty surrounding Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. Dak will go, but how ready he’ll be for the early start remains to be seen. Despite sending franchise legend Von Miller off to LA, the Broncos can still play D themselves, dealing Prescott a tough hand in his first game back.
3 POINT PLAY - Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs. New England Patriots
At some point I’m going to find a way out of betting Sam Darnold, at least that’s what I tell myself. With another tough slate to tackle, this spread just feels like one of the better values of the week. No, I don’t like Darnold vs. Belichick, but I will take a generous 0.5 knowing Christian McCaffrey will finally return to action. I think the Panthers D can cause enough problems for Mac to keep this tight.
2 POINT PLAY - Los Angeles Rams vs. Tennessee Titans OVER 52.5
Call it a little SNF fun if you will, but I’ll go against my grain and aim for a shootout in primetime. The public is obviously a little down on Tennessee’s ability to score 20-30 points without Derrick Henry, and while he’s more machine now than man, RBs can usually be productive filling in for studs. Success on the ground isn’t all down to system, but it plays a big factor. I think the Titans keep this closer than anticipated with both teams nearing 30 points.
1 POINT PLAY - Houston Texans +5.5 @ Miami Dolphins
This last play really came down to which of my nightmare teams I could tolerate more. On one hand, I had the Raiders-Giants under, on the other we have taking some points against the team that has fucked me at [almost] every turn. As much as I believe in the former, I simply can’t make up or down with the Raiders right now. Every week, they seem to face some kind of harrowing obstacle that would set a team spiraling, but Vegas stays steady. Maybe I’m the last schmuck waiting for KC to turn around and the Raiders to fall apart, so with that in mind I’ll stay away. The Texans have played well against much more competent teams than the Dolphins, and while this is admittedly as square a pick as it gets, I can’t stay away.
Tommy’s Picks
Week 8 recap: 1-4 (-7)
Overall: 9-15-1 (-16)
Not hitting these 5 point plays is really hurting me. I need a big week to climb back out of this hole. Claypool with 1 reception shy of the bet and this week would have looked a lot better. Im also happy I grabbed the Rams at -15.5 as that line went up to -16.5 before kickoff. My selections this week are simple and are based off past successful trends. Not much else I can say expect together we march forward!
5 POINT PLAY - Patriots -3.5
Sam Darnolds track record against the Patriots and Big bad Bill is laughable to the point where the comment “I was seeing ghosts” was made. The Panthers however have been successful against the Patriots over the years, but those teams are different then the teams that will be on the field tomorrow. Ron Rivera is a great coach and can compete in a game against the mighty Bill, but he is gone and Matt Rhule is there now. He hasn’t done anything to earn respect as a competitor in my opinion. Give me the Patriots in a game that will have them right in the thick of things for a spot in the playoffs.
4 POINT PLAY - Bills -14.5
2 touchdowns favorites have been successful this season for the spitballers. The Bills just played in a tough low scoring affair with the Dolphins. The Dolphins D is significantly better than the Jaguars and I anticipate the Bills are going to want to score after being held in check last week. I anticipate a huge game from Josh Allen and an easy victory from the bills in this one. On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense has a great shot at preventing a touchdown this week. Trevor Lawrence and the passing attack is far from being anything yet, and with James Robinson banged up their run game won’t be at full strength. This is not a good spot for the Jags. Sprinkle on the large amount of points the Jaguars have let up at home this year thus far ( 23, 31, 37, 20) and you are looking at the ingredients for a blow out.
3 POINT PLAY - Rams vs Titans Over 52.5
The Rams have shown that they will continue to pass even with a big lead which is always a good thing when chasing an over. Without Henry, I’m assuming the Titans will turn to slinging the ball to AJ Brown and Julio(?) all game which could lead to some big plays. I think this game will be better than the -7 point spread would indicate. Feels like all the prime time games have gone done to the wire. I hope this turns into a shootout where the last team with the balls wins the game.
2 POINT PLAY - Chargers vs Eagles over 49.5
So this isn’t exactly the trend because it is a 4pm kickoff but it still is a west coast team traveling to the east, so I’m going to jump on it anyway. Also regardless of travel I think this game has the potential to be a shootout. Herbert vs Hurts should be entertaining. Both teams also need a win here so that could lead to some aggressive play calling in second half depending on the direction of the game. I’ve now lost on the chargers 2 weeks in a row…third times the charm?
1 POINT PLAY - Raiders @ Giants over 46.5
Sticking with the trend I’ve used in past weeks of a west coast time zone traveling to the east coast and playing 1pm game, this game is going over. Giants are on a short week, but their offense continues to get healthy. Raiders are off a Bye so they have had plenty of time to settle their coaching situation and game plan for this one. The Ruggs situation is a tragedy and in no way am I comparing this situation to the Gruden one, but the last time the raiders dealt with controversy they rolled over their opponent. Truthfully I like the under in this one but have to stick to the trend. Only my one point confidence!
Bonus props!!!
Contrary to what it may seem as I’ve been very unsuccessful in the prop bets I’ve chosen for my picks on here, I have actually been very successful off paper. Here are some player props I will be looking into this weekend.
Tee Higgins over 60.5 receiving yards
Mark Ingram over 29.5 rush yards
Dan’s Picks
5 POINT PLAY - Rams -7.5
Rams have played a few opponents in the past few weeks on Detroit and Houston, while Tennessee has had a brutal stretch of emoticons games. No Derrick Henry in this game either. LA might come out a little slow but they’ll get on track and cover a decently large number over Tennessee.
4 POINT PLAY - 49ers -3
The Niners should have beat the Cardinals earlier in the year with Trey Lance at QB. The Cardinals were the hot team and it’s only one loss but they seem to be a team that’s destined for a big fall off. I’ll jump on the Niners here in what could be the beginning of a bad stretch for Arizona.
3 POINT AND PROP PLAY: Ravens Over Team Total Rushing 103 Yards
The Ravens average 149 yards rushing per game, while the Vikings are one of the worst defenses against the run. Ravens off a bye week, Vikings off a Monday night loss, the Ravens get ahead and pound the rock all day.
2 POINT PLAY - Giants +3
The Jon Gruden departure seems to have helped this team come together but now with another huge distraction with Henry Ruggs incident and a trip out east for an early kickoff, I don’t know how this team will be able to focus. Giants love finding ways to lose but I’ll take them as home underdogs and maybe to win outright.
2 POINT PLAY - Ravens -6
Like I stated above I think the Ravens fresh off a bye and the Vikings on a short week after the Monday Night Game sets up perfect for the Ravens here. Their strength is the Vikings biggest weakness. I’ll pay the points with Baltimore.