NFL HALLOWEEN PICKS
Happy Halloween folks. This is one of the most challenging weeks of picks I have ever seen. Not for nothing I finally hit my stride and today’s slate looked my right in the eyes and laughed. The team at Spitball will give you some winners though, we always do. On that note, let’s play.
TOMMY’S PICKS
Week 7 recap: 2-3 (-5 pts)
Overall: 8-11-1 (-9pts)
I’ve learned my lesson to not be cocky when doing parlays. Making a triple player prop parlay was a lot of fun but could have also been fun as my 1 pt play rather than my 4. As for my 5 point play I was so confident in the Eagles that I declared them as my lock of the season thus far. Need to give the old brain an oil change and get going for week 8.
5 POINT AND PROP PLAY - Chase Claypool over 4.5 receptions
I like to play the law of averages and believe that things somewhat even out. When a normal big performance guy has somewhat of a down week(s) I always try to make money off of their “rebound” game. Claypool was a non factor their last time out and then had to sit and think about it as the Steelers were on a bye. I anticipate a big game from him, even against a stingy browns defense. I’d like to dabble on the over In yards and TD scored also but this could be a low scoring affair so I’ll settle with the reception total as my 5pt pick.
4 POINT PLAY - Rams -15.5
I’m going to take one out of Nicks book from last week when he selected the cardinals as huge favorites against the Texans. The spread is essentially the same for this game (difference of 3 for home/away). It’s too funny of a spread not to pick it. A similar trend occurred in 2019 where the Dolphins were so bad that the handicappers were admittedly making crazy spreads against the Dolphins and they were still cashing for the Public. I might as well ride that bus with the Texans here until they prove us otherwise.
3 POINT PLAY - Chargers -4
The last time out the chargers got shellacked by the Ravens in what I thought would have been a shootout between Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. Herbert ended up playing one of the worst games of his career and then had to sit and think about it for 2 weeks as they had a bye. I think Justin Herbert owes me and the chargers one here. Patriots defense is good and their run game has been getting better and better so I think they will be in this game until the end. Ultimately I think the chargers win on a big day from Herbert. I’m hoping they can cover as well. Go bolts!
2 POINT PLAY - Bengals -11.5
Don’t let this selection fool you, I still hate the Bengals. I’ve just lost picking against them too many times that I’m hoping to hop on the band wagon this week and get a nice W. If not I’ll be mushing them and then maybe they will start to trend downward as I expected and we can cash in on their hype in future weeks. With a lot of picks this week due to my poor overall record I have to throw out research methods and personal opinions I’ve been using and try something new. So here’s to you Mr. Vegas handicapper you flipped me onto the Bengals.
1 POINT PLAY - Chiefs -10
I smell a trap. I think this spread doesn’t make any sense which will force people to be on the giants. BUT Vegas knows something people do not and the line opening at 10 is nuts. Is this the game the chiefs turn their season around? This selection is tough as a Giants fan but sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. Get rich or die tryin!
DAN’S PICKS
5 Point and Prop play of the week: Noah Fant over 38.5 receiving yards
This might be the only thing I’m good at picking. 3-0 on prop plays since I joined the spitballers and were looking to keep that trend alive. Washington is awful defending tight ends. This year opposing tight ends:
Tonyan 4 catches 63 yards and a TD
Kelce 8 catches 99 yards
Trautman 2 catches 43 yards
Pitts and Hurst combined 8 catches 79 yards
Knox 4 catches 49 yards and a TD
Cook 5 catches 56 yards
I know Jeudy is back but that could actually help open things up a little for Fant. Fant has 6 or more targets in 5 of 7 games this year. Id look to throw money on him any time touchdown scored at +1200 also.
4 POINT PLAY - Carolina @ Atlanta over 46.5
I have weird hunch in this game. Carolinas offense STINKS. Losers in their last 4 games but that mostly is because Sam Darnold has been awful since CMC has gone out. But it’s do or die for Sam this week, his job is on the line. Good thing for Carolina, Atlanta is 30th in points allowed this year letting up an average of 29.3 a game. On another note Carolinas defense has regressed also. They’ve only had 4 sacks in this losing streak after have 14 in the first 3 weeks of the season. Atlanta is winners of two straight and seem to have it going on offense with Ridley and Gage back and Pitts and Patterson emerging. Give the over in what will be a surprise shootout.
3 POINT PLAY - Pittsburgh +3.5 @ Cleveland
This is all about revenge. This is all about showing the world Mike Tomlin isn’t going anywhere. This is all about showing everyone the USC distraction is nothing but bullshit. It’s that simple for me here. Pittsburgh comes out of the bye ready to play and gives the Browns some payback for last years beat down in the Wild Card round.
2 POINT PLAY - Seattle -3.5 vs Jacksonville
Geno Smith is undefeated against the spread in his last 7 starts. The Seahawks defense looked better last week against the Saints and the Jags offense is limited. The Jags got their one victory of the year 2 weeks ago in London and aren’t in the mood to go to up to Seattle and deal with the 12th man. Seahawks at home with Geno leading the charge.
1 POINT PLAY - Indianapolis -2.5 vs Tennessee
Both of these teams are hot. Titans have won 3 straight since the loss to the Jets and Indianapolis has gotten going behind Jonathan Taylor and Carson Wentz. Tennessee got the better of Indy a few weeks ago so this is a must win for the Colts to have a shot to win the AFC South. Quenton Nelson is back to booster the offensive line and I think Wentz makes one more play then Tannehill and Indy pulls out a close one at home.
BRIAN’S PICKS
5 POINT PLAY - Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Doing my best to work myself out of a mini-slide when it comes to my best bets. The month of October has been brutal to my five point plays, the culmination of which occurred when fear and loathing hit the 4 PM window and the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s clear to me now the Las Vegas Raiders are my stay away team of the year, so I’ll be a good boy and go back to the well of what I know. I’ve had my pulse on the Tennessee Titans all year, backing them to pound the disjointed Jaguars and faded them against the haphazard Jets. Today is the day of public dogs and the Titans are one of the biggest dandies of the day. Fans are enamored with what they’ve done the past two weeks against Kansas City and Buffalo, and deservedly so, but the mental edge lies with the home team in this one. The Colts have been a competitive 3-4, and the line adjusted almost to a PK early in the week before returning to its advanced status of 2.5. The pros are betting Indianapolis and you should, too.
4 POINT PLAY - Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Under 48.5
I’m just a big dumb bitch who likes to cause trouble. Every time I type those two words, Miami Dolphins, I know I’m in for three+ hours of ass-clenching action. A team that defies all laws of physics, it’s hard to find a more disappointing team across the league than the one-win Dolphins, who fell apart down the stretch last week against the decrepit Atlanta Falcons. Hard to blame them, I suppose, as I have no idea who’s bright idea it was to have Miami play a week after returning from under the Queen’s distrustful bosom in London, but can’t squeeze the toothpaste back in. Buffalo pummeled Miami the last time these two teams met, I should remember, I backed the Dolphins heavily. I don’t expect things to get quite that ugly, but I fully anticipate a methodical, business-like win for the Bills off a bye. I don’t expect Miami to get a word in edge-wise offensively.
3 POINT PLAY - Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ Detroit Lions
We already touched on the fact that the Eagles shit the sheets last week, no matter, I was simply ahead of the curve. Everyone and their mother is baking the Lions, the lowly, stinky Lions. I know they’re the best 0-7 team in the league, I’ve heard it all. Truth is this team can’t be counted on to win until they do, until proven otherwise the 2021 Lions will find a way to rip the collective guts out of their loyal fanbase. Though even now I’m tempted to hedge my way out of that half point hook on the Eagles, just take the over, you’ll feel better. No, a man has to have principles. We ride with the Eagles again. Fly Eagles, Fly.
2 POINT PLAY - New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals Under 43
Mike White is starting for the Jets. We may see Joe Flacco at some point. It’s all happening, and none of it is good. Start opening candy bars in search of razor blades and mescaline, Jets fans.
1 POINT PLAY - Carolina Panthers +3 @ Atlanta Falcons
Well, it’s come to this. Don’t consider this a play on Sam Darnold, just black the Panthers out of your memory altogether if that helps. Censor yourself, fuck, even lie to yourself if you have to. Just place the bet and throw it away. Do you trust the Falcons to cover the spread? Not just the spread, any spread, ever? As a favorite??? I didn’t think so….
NICK’S PICKS
As I said, I really have been ‘nothing but net.’ A perfect 5 for 5 last week and 9 for my last 10. You cannot buy picks that well. This week is a really tough one, there is an absurd amount of points being given.
5 POINT PLAY - Rams -16.5
Bold move for my 5 point play but the Rams are a very good football team. Definitely a top 5 team in the NFL right now. The Texans have pretty much imploded. They are really going to have to tear this thing apart before the trade deadline in a few weeks. The Rams are going to roll in and absolutely crush them. I am shocked this spread isn’t over 20. I am not going to question this, a lot of points but Rams by a million.
4 POINT PLAY - Chargers -4
Another play I absolutely love for probably all the wrong reasons. The Pats absolutely hammered the Jets last week and my thought is everrrryyyone is going to be on them with the points. Also, Justin Herbert was embarrassed by the Patriots against them last year. This is a low key revenge game and I love the Chargers at home.
3 POINT PLAY - Cowboys +2.5
The Vikings are a tough team but the Cowboys look really good all around. I don’t have faith in the Vikings to win a big game. I’m going to take a sucker play here because I think the cowboys are going to win outright, even without Dak. Call me crazy, call me whatever the hell you want, but the world is going to burn, the Cowboys will be 6-1, take the points, take the money line, it’s going to suck, so we might as well make money.
2 POINT PLAY - Jaguars +4
I’m going to be bold and take a young, hungry, road team. One team I have no faith in this year is the Seahawks. They are obviously well coached and have been one of the better teams of the last decade but I really believe that run is over. It is amazing how different things are without Russ. Trevor Lawrence is going to have a day today.
1 POINT PLAY - Lions +3
Very weird to say, but things are trending in a better direction for the 0-7 Lions. This team has fight. They show up and play hard, pull out all the tricks, leave everything on the field, but the roster is not there. They are getting their first win this week. I think they’re going to win on a last second field goal or something really dramatic. Dan Campbell is going to get his first win and the content will be limitless. Lions outright but we might as well take the points if they are there.