NFL WEEK 7 Spitball Picks

We are at week 7, and it seems like there is a total of 5 games.  I’m not sure who makes the NFL schedule, and I’m certain it is not easy, but this week had to be an oopsie.  There are so many bye’s this week and that makes picking 5 winners so much harder.  I finally showed up and went hit 4 out 5 on mine last week so I will kick things off.  Brian has still been hot so he is probably the strongest overall.  Watch out, because soon this team is going to get cooking.  Week 7 Momma, put the expensive China set away, the boys are at it again.

5 POINT PLAY - Bengals +6.5

This might be a scary pick for some but I love this Bengals team.  They play very, very hard.  Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are really in sync. It is always exciting to see a team’s rebuild start to come through.  This is going to be one of those tough AFC North matchups and I really believe the Bengals will keep it close.

4 POINT PLAY - Lions at Rams Under 50.5

This is some sort of weird revenge game, that’s also not a revenge game, but still is?  Anyway, this game is going to be a blowout.  I don’t see the Lions scoring many points at all.  Dan Campbell might have the boys fired up so I can see the defense playing tough enough to not let the Rams score 50 themselves.  Blowout game, under 50 though.

3 POINT PLAY - Saints -4

I strongly dislike the Seahawks.  As much as I respect former Jet Geno Smith I do not have much faith.  This game is going to be all Saints and we’re going to get to see Pete Carroll, Jamal Adams, and the whole crew complain.  Saints beat up on Seattle today, bank it.

2 POINT PLAY - Raiders -2

I am back on my bullshit.  The Raiders absolutely bankrupt me the first 5 weeks so I fade them last week.  After fading them they blowout the Broncos.  So, I will be taking them at home as a  small favorite over the Eagles.  Maybe I am the Raider mush, sorry Raider fans.  

1 POINT PLAY - Cardinals -19.5

This spread is so funny it has to hit.  Have the Cards in both my survivor pools and I never take the same team twice.  This is going to be a blowout, possibly 35-0.

Brian’s Picks

5 POINT PLAY - Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders

Last week, my run of four straight five point play wins came to an end in perhaps the most predictable of ways.  Though I would still contend I was a damn strong 3-2 given my two losses came on gut-wrenching OT TD’s by the Vikings and Cowboys, fact of the matter is I faded one of my noble truth’s for five points and it fucked me.  Panthers QB Sam Darnold was terrible against the Vikings last Sunday, a scenario I should have seen coming given our history and his rapid decline from NFL media love-child to  vagrant bum torpedoing his once 3-0 team.  Clearly the talking heads of Sport were once again getting their jollies off about the demented, dysfunctional Jets while wrapping Darnold in a metaphorical FEMA-blanket of praise after he showed the slightest bit of competence without Adam Gase and his Model-T offense.  Well that’s all over now, and long story short, that one was on me.  Opportunity lies ahead in an Eagles team getting points against a Raiders team the public seems a little over-impressed with.  The Raiders came out and boat-raced the Broncos after a week of controversy, but consider this an excellent chance to take advantage of a team coming off a big win.  The Eagles have had extra time to prepare having not played since October 14, and the Raiders could be more than due for a let-down.

4 POINT PLAY - Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints OVER 42.5 (MNF)

My urge here is actually to bet on Seattle.  I’m not terribly impressed with New Orleans at 3-2, with two of those wins coming in rather fluky fashion.  Sure, New Orleans took the Packers to task week one, but play that game over again and I’d bet money Green Bay approaches that game with a completely different mindset.  The Saints also picked off New England on the road, but that’s only a cheeky way of phrasing the fact that New Orleans’ D scored off Mac Jones twice in the game.  Though Geno Smith will continue to drive the public to the other side, the Seahawks have enough talent to remain competent with the journeyman under center, and I expect NO will be able to find some throwing lanes against Seattle’s porous passing D.

3 POINT PLAY - Cincinnati Benglas +6.5 @ Baltimore Ravens

I’ll admit it’s dangerous to lean on the Ravens injury report as cause to fade the current front-runner for MVP, but despite dropping below the key # of 7, I see Cincy keeping this one close.  The Ravens were dealt one of their harshest injury blows in a season full of them this week as it was announced OT Ronnie Stanley is done for the season.  Adding to that, the status of Alejandro Villanueva and Bradley Bozeman is up in the air as of Sunday morning.  Even if they go, it seems realistic to assume Lamar Jackson will be running for his life against the pesky Cincy pass rush.  While that may be just fine for Baltimore winning the game, this one could be a slugfest.

2 POINT PLAY - New England Patriots vs. New York Jets OVER 42.5

Based off the previous matchup between these teams, most will be pounding a low under believing the Jets and rookie QB Zach Wilson will once again be unable to master the boss-fight of Bill Belichick.  This could, in the end, prove to be the case, as the Jets offense has remained frustratingly inconsistent and down-right inept at the onset of games.  And no, I’m not necessarily buying into the press clippings that the Jets have gotten their offense figured out of the bye week.  No one’s expecting the Jets offense to put up 400 total yards and 30+ points, if you are, grow up.  Yet, I’m still holding stock in Wilson, I’m still holding on LaFleur, and I’m buying on Saleh’s ability to make sound adjustments on the fly.  The Jets have looked much better in the second half opposed to the first, they seem to be a team that’s capable of identifying their shortcomings and correcting them when given a second to take in the information.  As a fan, I’d much prefer that over the previous regime that was as good at scripting an opening drive as they were infuriatingly awful at anticipating what comes next.  As a handicapper, I think this game pushes to the 20s for both teams in an overall more-competitive game than most anticipate.  

1 POINT PLAY - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears UNDER 47

Tough week to spot winners, but I’ll head back to the well on my old faithful.  Back to back weeks I’ve attacked the under on the Chicago Bears, and though I certainly feel like this is a risk, it feels backed by enough reality to be a calculated risk.  The Bucs defensive backfield is pretty depleted, and we’ve seen signs that the Bears offense is beginning to grow into the 21st century under rookie QB Justin Fields.  Maybe I’m betting on reputation more than the matter at hand, but sometimes you have to go with what you know.  Todd Bowles and the Bucs D comes into this matchup with extra time to prepare for a rookie QB with every last one of his training wheels still on.  Keep it simple.

Tommy’s Picks

Week 6 recap: 2-3 (+1)

Overall: 6-8-1 (-4)

 I guess I put two much faith in Justin Herbert last weekend. He had one of the worst games of his career and it hurt my wallet. Herbert accounted for two of my 3 losses last week, the other was the Bengals murdering the Lions. I thought the lions were the kings of the jungle…..out the rear view mirror as we move on to the next where we look to have a big week!

 5pt play Eagles ML (+122)

Screw the spread! Raiders are riding a high off of a big win but let’s not forget they lost to the bears two weeks ago. There is no way Karma will let the raiders continue to win this season with Gruden recently exposed. Looking at the Eagles season as a whole this game is a must win if they intend on climbing the standings. The eagles schedule has been very tough thus far and they have been in pretty much every game. The game is in Vegas so I’ll gamble here on the positive money line value! 

 4pt play I’m going to have a little fun with this one…I call it the TRIPLE P, for Player Prop Parlay

1.) Ryan Tannehill over 1.5 TD passes -138

2.) Calvin Ridley anytime TD +100

3.) Jonathan Taylor U 67.5 rush yard -113

Combine in parlay for (+550)

 Although it may be impossible if I’m a Defensive coordinator watching Derrick Henry run all over the Bills I’m strictly planning on trying to stop him. If the chiefs do everything they can to try and stop Henry I’m hoping it will open some opportunities for Tannehill and the passing game to have success against the chiefs awful secondary. My explanation for Ridley is that he has been way to quiet this season and is just due. Throughout Jonathan Taylor’s young career he has only had success against bad run defenses. The 49ers defense is good. I expect the 49ers to limit him.

 3pt play Patriots -7

We all know the patriots record against rookie quarterbacks under Bill, so why overthink it. History repeats itself. The patriots defense is good and their run game has been shaping up as well. That is recipe for success playing a divisional opponent at home. The Jets have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye and I actually look at that as a bad thing as they might overthink and try to outdo the patriots and that just can’t happen with the best coach of all time on the sidelines. I don’t think this will be a blowout but a Patriots win is inevitable.

 2pt play Dolphins vs Falcons over 48.5

I think offensively the Falcons have a nice little thing going for them and defensively they have actually been pretty good. Eventually I think their defense plays to expectations and starts letting up more points. Dolphins were left heartbroken in London, but Tua actually looked good. If dolphins can get their run game going and tua plays well again I don’t see them having a problem scoring. The dolphins secondary is also banged up and Calvin Ridley has been super quiet this season. He is primed for a big day which only helps the case for the over. 

1pt play Ravens -6.5

My confidence is a little shook after the Bengals blew out they Lions last week in a game I thought would go the other way. This is why this is only my 1pt play this week. I really don’t like this Bengals team and I think it’s only a matter of time before they crumble. I absolutely love Joe Burrow in college and that LSU team is in my opinion the best college team of all time. I still like Burrow, but outside of him and the receivers everyone is over performing. Their Oline is atrocious and as a former Olineman I can’t get behind a team with a bad Oline

Dan’s Picks

Dan had to list out his picks this week.  His usual prop play is there as well.  Dan is the father out of this group so luckily we were able to get his 5 picks and his explanations will be back next week.

5 point play - Eagles +3

4 point play - Giants panthers under 43

3 point play - Dolphins +2

2 point play - Ravens -6

1 point and prop play - Hurts over 47.5 rush yards