NFL WEEK 11 SPITBALL PICKS

After a week off from half of our crew attending Tommy’s bachelor party the Spitball crew is back and ready to fire off NFL picks for week 11.  Week 11 features a beautiful slate of games plagued by injuries, in/outs, and storylines all over the league.  One beautiful thing the NFL does get today is the return of former Super Bowl MVP and cringing personality Joe Flacco.  Flacco’s personality is the exact opposite of the Jets motto ‘All Gas, No Brake,’ and we get to watch him against rival Miami Dolphins in what might be the most boring division game ever.  Cam Newton will face former head coach, Ron Rivera in a game that terrifies me as a gambler.  Tommy and Dan are back firing off props, Brian is ragging on Tommy and I for missing a week, and we are absolutely ready to go.  I’m sorry if you missed us but don’t worry anymore, the boys are back, let's do this. 

Nick’s Picks

5 POINT PLAY - Bengals -1.5

If you have been following all season, I have been ALL OVER these tight spread Bengal games.  This is a really solid team.  They might be one more year off of legitimate contenders, but they are right there.  Joe Burrow is having a special season in this offense.  Young Head Coach Zac Taylor has this team gassed up on all sides of the ball.  I don’t have a ton of faith in this Raiders squad after the shit pumping they took at home last week.  So, I will be absolutely HAMMERING the Bengals here to put on a show in Las Vegas. 

4 POINT PLAY - Titans -10

I know a division game, I know 10 points is a ton, I know King Henry is still out, and I know this is a sucker take, but the Titans will easily cover.  The Texans are a seriously bad team.  The Titans, lately, look like a team with Super Bowl aspirations.  They won’t hesitate, they will blow out the Texans and move on.

3 POINT PLAY - Cowboys +2.5

I have a specific friend who, if he reads this, I will get a ton of shit from.  Okay Tyler, I’ll say it, I was VERY wrong about this Cowboys team.  I’m not convinced they are Super Bowl contenders yet, but they are definitely a well constructed team.  They keep proving me wrong, so I might sprinkle a future on them cause why not?  The NFC might be too loaded right now, but the Cowboys are still really good.  They are going to win this game outright today.  I’ve said it before, the world is going to burn, the Cowboys will be 8-2 so get ready for it now.  Also, the Chiefs looked really good last week so the public will probably smash them at home. 

2 POINT PLAY - Chiefs - Cowboys WAY OVER 55.5

Double Barrel action on this game today.  This game is going to be an explosion of points.  It is going to be so much fun to watch.  I’m such a sucker for this over, not much to explain, don’t be an idiot and take this under.  Take the points and enjoy the show. 

1 POINT PLAY - Vikings +1 

Tough, home, division game.  I love the Packers and they were my Super Bowl pick before the season. There is a little too much negative attention on them right now.  This Vikings team is not a roll over.  I think the Vikings will steal one at home from Green Bay.  Dalvin Cook is due for a blow up game and not to bring this in but my fantasy team needs it SO BAD.  I’m all aboard the Vikings train today, we will have a hard-fought game and in the end we will hear “YOU LIKE THAT.”

Brian’s Picks

5 POINT PLAY - Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Nick and Tommy ran off to Vegas last week, so forgive me if I’m a little rusty.  Luckily for you, while they were sleeping, I was studying…the first quarter of the 1 PM slate doesn’t watch itself, after all.  The Saints appeared to be heading into this game in a good spot, but as the week unfolded, the injury report told another story.  As of last night, New Orleans is slated to be down not only All-Pro RB Alvin Kamara, but three offensive lineman, two of which are the team’s starting OT’s.  The Saints took quite a bit of action this week as a public dog, and the pros have been spamming the B button on the Eagles ever since.

 4 POINT PLAY - Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 50.5

Ladies and gentleman, boys and girls, I give you the Under Bowl.  Since our luck turned at the start of October, we’ve consistently gone to the plentiful well of inflated totals for these two teams.  People see these teams and they think points, plain and simple.  You’ll have your games where Mike White is able to keep pace with Joe Burrow, but at the end of the day we have two competent football teams on our hands.  History tells us they’re leaky, but both teams play hard and compete on both sides of the ball.  I imagine this matchup between two AFC playoff hopefuls will run more methodically than most predict.

 3 POINT PLAY - Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 56

Two for the price of one here.  I can’t explain my reasoning more fluently than I did for the previous game.  After both teams combined for 84 points last week, it’s easy to think offense when you see these teams.  What some may lose sight of in last week’s results is the combined 17 points both defense’s allowed.  The Raiders and Falcons offense’s certainly aren’t stellar, but we aren’t talking about the Jets and Texans, either.  With KC and Dallas both fighting to cement playoff positions, I’ll take my chances against the highest total on the slate.

 2 POINT PLAY - Washington Football Team +3 @ Carolina Panthers

I’d certainly place this game higher if I could guarantee you 3.5, but no matter long I stare at this line it just doesn’t seem to go up.  Sometimes you can will these kinds of things to happen, other times you have to accept you’re simply a mere mortal.  Everything about this game screams Washington to me, everything.  We have Riverboat Ron marching south into his house taking on his former team.  The Panthers are the darling of the public right now having smashed the top-seed in the NFC in meme-worthy fashion.  We have a nation of football fans moistened by said meme, believing Cam Newton has found 2015 vintage now that he’s back in powder blue.  I can’t tell you Washington is good, but I certainly can’t bring myself to say Carolina is, either.  I think Rivera out-coaches the less experienced Rhule and keeps his Team With No Name alive for another week.

 1 POINT PLAY - New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins OVER 44.5

Three for the price of one here.  When people see these teams, they see putrid dogshit decaying on a dead lawn.  The Dolphins, perhaps the most disappointing team in the NFL, squaring off against a Jets team that simply isn’t worth anybody’s time.  The world sees the Jets starting Joe Flacco and immediately assumes we’re in for a cataclysmic display of public disembowelment not seen since the French Revolution.  And this could happen, make no mistake about it.  All of what’s being predicted could invariably take place before the game hits halftime, but I see something slightly different.  I see a possibility, admittedly a fairly ugly one, that Flacco is *at this moment* the most competent QB on the Jets roster.  A QB who can both slow things down for the young unit around him, while also stretching the field a bit more than Mike White has the capacity to do.   We’re not asking for 2010, 70-yard bomb Flacco, but someone who can find Elijah Moore on a deep route once?  It’s worth a shot.  As a fan, I don’t want to see the Jets back-peddling their confidence in Zach Wilson, but in trying to scrape the bottom of the barrel for one last play, I think this game could surprise some people.  Most seem a bit behind the fact that the Jets defense has been atrocious the past few weeks.  For those who are bad with their history, the Jets defense was often pretty atrocious under Rex Ryan, too…

Dan’s Picks

5 POINT PLAY - Vikings +1 Vs Packers

Minnesota at 4-5 in a must win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. The packers off 3 highly motivated spots with games against the Cardinals, Chiefs without Rodgers and the Seahawks ( Russ first game back). I like the Vikings here I think these two teams are more evenly matched then the records tell us they are. Vikings lost to both Cincinnati and Arizona but easily could of won those games while Green Bay beat both those teams and easily could of lost both. If you switch those outcomes Minnesota would probably be favorite here. I’ll take Minnesota at home catching a point to get the must needed W.

 4 POINT PLAY - Saints +2.5 at Eagles 

New Orleans battled last week and was a two point try away from possibly getting to overtime with the scorching hot Tennessee Titans. The Eagles and Jalen Hurts coming off their best offensive performance of the year last week at Denver and have been running the football great as of late. However the New Orleans is the best team against the run and I think they force Hurts to be one dimensional, and accurately move the ball down the field through the air, which he won’t be able to do consistently. New Orleans does it with their defense and gets the outright win in Philadelphia. 

 3 POINT AND PROP PLAY: 

George Kittle over 63.5 receiving yards, over 5.5 catches and anytime TD 

 3 headed parlay and I’m all in on this. Kittle is back and making a difference offensively for this 49ers offense. 5 for 50 and a touchdown last week 6 for 101 and a touchdown the week before. Jacksonville is allowing opposing tight ends to catch 75.8% of targets and average 8.8 yards per attempt according to ESPN. The 3 headed monster prop parlay should have a nice payout. 

 2 POINT PLAY - Dallas +2.5 at Kansas City

 One good game and everyone is back on the KC bandwagon. The wrong team is favorite in this game and maybe it’s a suckers bet but I love Dallas getting the points here. The cowboys offense is explosive and will be able to do whatever they want on this Kansas City defense. The blue print to beat the Chiefs has been well documented this year and the Raiders refused to play that way last week, allowing Mahomes and company to pop off for 41 points. I’ll take Dallas in a high scoring affair and what will most likely be the most entertaining game of the weekend. 

 1 POINT PLAY - Carolina -3.5 at Washington

 HES BACKKKKK, and so is Christian McCaffery. This game is a simple handicap for me. Cam is back and I think has breathed a HUGE resurgence of energy into this team. Take that and add in CMC being back at full health and this team is poised to get on a little bit of a hot streak here. Washington with an impressive win last week but the Carolina defense can easily keep the Washington offense in check while Cam and McCaffery and maybe a little PJ Walker make enough explosive plays on offense to cover the 3 and the hook.

 Tommy’s Picks

Week 10 recap: N/A

Overall: 11-17-1

There is nothing like placing a bet at a Sportsbook and receiving a ticket and better yet that ticket being a winner. The boys were in Las Vegas last weekend at a handicap convention which lead to an off the record 4 out of 5 showing from yours truly. All the money I lost at the casino was forgotten about when I ran back up to the Sportsbook to collect with a big ol’ grin like a kid running to the ice cream truck. Now I’m back to sitting on my couch making mobile wagers, but hey I’d love to hear a figurative Mr. Softee tune once these picks cash….

5 POINT PLAY 

Packers -1 at Vikings

We don’t need to speculate anymore if Aaron Rodgers is on a revenge tour or not. He is pissed off and he is showing it in his play. I don’t want to be in his way right now. Aaron Jones being hurt is a very big blow as the packers don’t really have that many consistent weapons in the passing game outside of Adams. Jones was a big weapon both running and catching out of the backfield. AJ Dillon is a fine replacement in the ground game but Jones is a level above in pass catching. I still think you could throw high school receivers out there and Rodgers would find a way. To add to the confidence in this pick, Rodgers is 15-9-1 against Vikings in his career and Green Bay’s defense has been unreal this November. 

4 POINT PLAY

Steelers +6 at chargers 

Sunday night football means Big Ben in prime time. He carries a ridiculous record of like 21-4 in home games in prime time in his career. Now I know this is not a home game but the last time the Steelers played the chargers in 2019, Steelers fans took over the stadium and essentially took away home field advantage for the chargers. I’m expecting the same to happen today. Plus, the away team has won the past 4 meetings in this matchup all as underdogs. Get those terrible towels out!

3 POINT PLAY 

49ers at Jaguars over 45

West coast team traveling to east coast for a 1pm kickoff!!! Roll baby roll. I feel like this total is obnoxiously high also for a Jaguars team that really just can’t score, that plays well to my thinking’s. 

2 POINT AND PROP PLAY

Trevor Lawrence under 1.5 TD passes 

Sticking with picking on the jags here…Trevor Lawrence is not having the year some expected of him. In fact he has only thrown more than 1 passing touchdown once and that came week 1 against the Texans where he threw 3. Since then he has only thrown 5 in 8 games…ew. With that being said the 49ers have only allowed signal callers to have 2 passing touchdowns in 4 out of their 9 games (44%). I like my chances here. Currently at -180 so not too much value that’s why it’s only my 2pt play. 

1 POINT PLAY 

Browns -12.5 vs Lions 

The Browns were embarrassed last week by the Patriots and need a win here in this spot. Goff being out doesn’t necessarily hurt the lions as their offense is all about the run game. Browns D is 3rd in the league in yards allowed per carry at 3.8 only behind the saints and bucs. If baker doesn’t do anything stupid I think the browns can run the ball the entire game and cover this spread. Browns defense will be the main reason this one is not close.