NFL WEEK 13 Spitball Picks
NFL Week 13 where once again we are in a mess of who’s in/who’s out, and spreads that sort of make your head scratch?? We officially have hit December football and that means that the race for the playoff is intensifying. One thing that is to note about December football is that Tom Brady has a 66-16 record in this month. I believe that is one of the craziest statistics that he has. Once it comes down to crunch time, Tom Brady locks in. However, my favorite part of this NFL season right now is that essentially every AFC team is “In the Hunt.” Also, I am so excited for Chargers vs Bengals, I think that will be the game of the week. With everything being so close, nothing really is for certain. I’ll tell you one thing that is though, the Spitball Crew being locked and loaded. Time for week 13’s picks, let’s do it.
Brian’s Picks
5 POINT PLAY - Kansas City Chiefs -9 vs. Denver Broncos
We have truly found the bottom of the barrel for Week 13. From my vantage point this is as bad as it gets. We’ve been dealt some bad boards this week, but this has to be Rock Bottom followed directly by the People’s Elbow straight to your godforsaken wallets. In a normal week, there isn’t one single game I would assign a one point wager to on this slate, let alone five. We’re talking the gross of the gross, a true, unadulterated terrorfuck to anyone who considers him or herself a level-headed gambler. After my first sub-.500 week in over two months, perhaps that’s exactly what we need. Sometimes you gotta throw stones at a fog-covered mountain in order to better figure out the shape of what you’re about to tackle. Vegas has come in hot and heavy with lines this week, everything feels right. If you’re savvy or stupid, today you tease, tease, tease. Turn those 1.5’s into 8.5’s, that 13 into 6. Get your key numbers however you can, because there’s no give-aways today. We’re breaking it down to basics, pick spots you like and exploit them accordingly.
The Sunday night game is the only one that works for me as is. The Broncos have generally been what we expected them to be, a competitive team with a high floor, but a very limited ceiling due to an offense that simply isn’t explosive. There’s no need to indulge myself with the prose needed to hype up the Chiefs offense, we all know what they’re capable of. I simply don’t see a way Denver can hang with Mahomes and the Chiefs once KC gets a jump on them. There’s certainly a window where Denver can get ugly, bog down the Chiefs and keep this close, but they’ll need to play flawless D in order to do it. Teasing to two or three points is even better, but I imagine KC will be able to stretch this to a two-score game sooner rather than later. Once that happens I simply don’t see the Broncos making a significant dent.
4 POINT PLAY - Houston Texans +10 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Next we pick on the wackiest line of the week. Advanced spreads for this game had the Colts somewhere around a TD favorite over the lowly Texans, and my only assumption is that losing to the Jets cost the Texans some perceived viability. Truth is Houston is the same crappy team they were last week, regardless of how a rather unwatchable game vs. the Jets ended up in the record books. Is it concerning that Houston’s poor run D represents the type of team Indianapolis tends to dispatch with little issue? A bit, but I still don’t know where I stand with the Colts outside of the absolutely ridiculous Jonathan Taylor. Outside of picking apart a sleepwalking Bills team, the Colts have done little to impress and nothing to instill confidence. They played tough with the defending champs last week, but when the going got tough, the Bucs were able to execute everything they needed to do. The Colts will be without both starting safeties against backdoor-cover savant Tyrod Taylor.
3 POINT PLAY - Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 50.5
Find the highest total and take the under, catching on yet? Do not overthink this week, take what it’s giving you and try to get out. This total feels ALL about perception to me. The Bucs offense is great and the Falcons are a team that makes people think offense. Whether or not Matt Ryan is made out of balsa wood is irrelevant to the situation. They’re a team that’s shown an ability to get into the 20s thanks to a bit of electricity from Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts, though neither weapon is expected to be at their best against the still-formidable Tampa Bay defense. Todd Bowles’ unit hasn’t looked as dominant as it did during last year’s Super Bowl run, but they’re still more than explosive enough to handle offenses that can’t beat them in a track meet.
2 POINT PLAY - New York Jets vs. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 43.5
Now we go back on our blessed bullshit. The public loves pounding Jets under’s, and after the Eagles failed to get into double digits against the Giants last Sunday, the world is ready to see football regress a decade when these two teams meet in the early slate. Earlier in the week, my lean was actually with the Jets as the Eagles were laying a full seven points, on the road, with a quite-obviously injured Jalen Hurts at QB. I actually think the Eagles stand to gain a couple points with Gardner Minshew under center, yet the line has adjusted about two points in the other direction. The natural pivot for me is to take the over, as I think the Eagles offense will be more capable of exposing a bad Jets secondary. If you think I’m going to stop banking on this being Zach Wilson’s breakout week, you don’t know me at all.
1 POINT PLAY - Washington Football Team +1.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders
As I alluded to earlier, this is the prime tease candidate on the slate. I’ll still represent it here, but know that I believe there’s a better way to get the true value out of this game. I actually think the oddsmakers got this game fairly right, after a fairly impressive start the Raiders have regressed to the mean while the nameless Washington outfit has stayed humming along in the mediocre-but-capable tier of “contenders,” in the NFC. I simply don’t see Washington getting blown out here, getting this game to the key number of 8.5 is about as ideal as it gets. Despite putting on an impressive offensive display in a national spotlight on Thanksgiving, the Raiders have failed to accumulate the requisite three points for a home team, and the public has endorsed them with confidence.
If you’re following along, these five plays set up as one of the more reasonable 7 point teasers you can talk yourself into. Chiefs -2/Texans +17/ATL-TB U 57.5/NYJ-PHI O 36.5/WFT +8.5. Survive the day, boys and girls. Keep your pride in your pockets.
Nick’s Picks
5 POINT PLAY - Raiders -125
As a 5 point play this might be a little risky. I am confident in the Raiders this week and I think that -125 is GREAT value. I am going to ride a hot hand with Derek Carr. Anyone who knows me knows I am NOT his biggest fan, but I will respect the wave here. He is having a phenomenal year. Not much about Washington has impressed me either. I think we also may see a bunch of points in this one, which I wouldn’t be mad about. I know no one cares but my injury ridden fantasy lineup needs a big day out of Terry McLaurin. So I see the Raiders winning a funky type of shootout.
4 POINT PLAY - Rams -13
The Rams are very due. They looked like legitimate Super Bowl Contenders early on and they have looked weak as of late. A perfect opponent to right the ship at home in the struggling Jaguars. A lot of points but I absolutely love this pick. Rams by a lot today, book it.
3 POINT PLAY - Patriots +2.5
This Patriots defense is actually unbelievable. They make life SO difficult for opposing offenses. I think Josh Allen and the Bills offense might be in for a tough night tomorrow. I absolutely hate that the Patriots turned it around after Brady this quick. Although I think their system makes it very easy for rookie Mac Jones, he is still out there making the throws. I HATE, HATE, HATE myself for it, but give me the Patriots in this one. I would sprinkle the under here too.
2 POINT PLAY - Dolphins -6.5
One thing you will always see me capitalize on is a backup Quarterback. When I see a backup get thrown into a fire like this I will always be on the opposition. It is so hard for a backup to come into a situation like this and play respectable. I know that Glennon is experienced, but there is a fire sale coming for the Giants. General Manager Dave Gettleman will be gone, Jason Garrett is already gone, and I’m not sure what is going to happen to Head Coach Joe Judge. This thing is close to hitting rock bottom, I don’t think the Dolphins are very good, but there’s a lot of bad things attached to the G Men right now. Dolphins cover here.
1 POINT PLAY - Ravens -4.
Huge bounce back week for Lamar. I do believe the Ravens are a great team and the Steelers are weak right now. Rumors about Ben Roethlisberger being on his final tour might start to become a distraction. It is going tobe a long day for the stale Steelers offense. I think the Ravens roll into Heinz Field and win convincingly in one of the greatest rivalries in the NFL.
Tommy’s Picks
Week 12: 1-3 (-5)
Overall: 14-23-1 (-25)
Screw the NFL. At this point I can’t catch a break. If you are following my picks the only reason for that would be to fade me. Another missed 5pt play. It’s actually pretty impressive to miss the 5pt this many times. I’m pretty close to the bottom here so that means there is only one direction to go and that’s up baby! Lucky # week 13…
5 POINT PLAY
Bears +8 vs Cardinals
I’m not sure if I even have touched either of these two teams all season so I’m a little hesitant on this selection especially as my 5pt play, but a touchdown plus to the home team seems like way to much points in this spot. Kyler Murray is back but I don’t think he will be running on all cylinders yet. With the cardinals offense running without Murray and also coming off a bye they will need a couple of games to get back to full speed ahead. Bears have been blown out a couple times this season but most of them have come on the road against really good teams. I think the cardinals conservative play calling in Kylers return keeps this one close. Da Bears.
4 POINT PLAY
Lions +7.5 vs Vikings
This pick explanation is short and sweet. If the spread is more than a touchdown and it’s against the Vikings, take the other team. Add in the fact that the lions are home and playing hard for their first W. This one seems like taking candy from a baby.
3 POINT PLAY
Texans +10 vs Colts
Sticking with the big underdog at home trend here, the colts are coming off a heartbreaker against Brady and the bucs. This is a chance to prove themselves on a rebound. The Texans run defense is not good which bodes well for Jonathan Taylor. BUT, what is the Texans realize there colts are probably going to plan on running all day and just decide to take away the run and put pressure every play. We could see the colts flip their script and look to wentz to make plays for them. If this happens this could even be an upset in this spot. The colts are good but for some reason this game doesn’t look as easy as the spread would say. Too many points!
2 POINT PLAY
Jamaal Williams over 20.5 receiving yards
Receptions and yards out of the back field is a huge part of the lions offense and with Swift out this week more of a load will be put on Jamaal Williams. I believe he is surly up to the task here against the Vikings defense who will be without some key defensive starters. This games total at 47 shows that there could be some points scored in this one which bodes well for the passing game also. I like this play here.
1 POINT PLAY
Giants +6.5 at Dolphins
I think the Dolphins are being given too much credit here for their recent performances. Even though the giants will be without Daniel jones and a bunch of other starting weapons on offense I think their defense is well above average and capable of keeping this one close. Don’t sleep on the giants here, they tend to keep things close.