NFL WEEK 12 Spitball Picks
We hope you all enjoyed our Thanksgiving special as we shared some winners with you but now it is back to our regularly scheduled programing. Since we already gave a few picks for the week and there were three Thursday games today we will be doing four picks instead of our usual five. With that being said, welcome to Week 12 of Spitball NFL Picks. As usual, picks, and a few props on a very important week of NFL matchups. One member of our crew has been absolutely money with his picks, but he is in a very gloomy mindset today. He needs to get the demons out of him so we’re going to have him kick us off.
Brian’s Picks
4 POINT PLAY - Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 @ Indianapolis Colts
Here’s the deal, folks. I hate to break it to you, indeed, it pains me to say it, but the cold realities hit us like a freight train yesterday: Football is over for 2021. I currently lie in state like a bed-ridden Don Corleone, shoeing away loved ones drowning in a mountain of get-well cards and regret. This sad scene is due to the horror…the horror I witnessed unfold Saturday afternoon from the high noon till 3:30. Even now, I shake at putting the words to page. The Ohio State University lost yesterday. There will be no National Championship this year, but that doesn’t matter. Last year, an act of God caused Harbaugh to dance around doomsday in Columbus, suspending America’s great rivalry for 365 days in order to finally take down the big, bad Buckeyes. To say I’m sick is an understatement. Is it possible I won’t go outside again until we exact our revenge a year from today? Indeed, I have to say it’s on the table…but immediately as the result was too real to disavow, I took a cold shower and made some hard choices. We’ve grown entirely too soft in this rivalry. 18 wins in 20 years can teach you a hell of a lot about success, but there’s a lot of talk right now about hard men and soft times. Simply put, I can’t contribute to the compromise and decay of my ideals a minute longer. For the remainder of 2021, there will be no football for yours truly. No fun, that is. When you’re grounded, you still have to go to school. The Jets, and my father’s equally gruesome Giants, will remain a tedious and depressing part of my Sundays from now until the end of the season. Any football game I may otherwise enjoy or find entertaining I cannot watch by my own volition. Consider it a hunger strike, a vow of silence, my contentious objection to ever again seeing the disgusting institution known as Michigan prevail on the last Saturday in November.
At 4-1 last week, I have a reputation to maintain despite the forthcoming handicap I must inflict on myself. Someone needs to keep the gravy train rolling, all I need is the numbers on the page. The Bucs match up well with Indy on both sides of the ball, and perception of the Colts is inflated due to the shit-kicking they gave Buffalo in Orchard Park. People forget it took this Colts team a blocked FG in order to beat the Jaguars just two weeks ago.
3 POINT PLAY - Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons OVER 46.5
The Falcons defense has been absolutely battered as of late, and despite the Jags ripping my guts out on the over last week, I think we’ll start to see flashes of a more mature Trevor Lawrence down the stretch. Despite the optics around the team being something of an unquenchable dumpster fire, the Jags have played some playoff teams tough this month. They should (key word when dealing with any shitty team) have enough confidence to move the ball this afternoon. The Falcons offense is banged up, which won’t help Matt Ryan exploit a Jags D that will be missing it’s top two CBs, but Atlanta should find it easier to breathe as Jacksonville is a fairly soft landing for a team coming off back to back blowout losses against the Patriots and Cowboys.
2 POINT PLAY - Seattle Seahawks +1 @ Washington Football Team (MNF)
The Seahawks offense hasn’t looked right since Russell Wilson returned from injury, but this feels like a spot to bank on them getting it right. Wilson will be motivated coming off two consecutive losses in which Seattle’s offense looked about as bad as it’s ever looked with Russell under center. Washington is taking quite a bit of public juice after beating Carolina on the road last week, but it’s fair to question if they’ll be able to match the intensity they displayed in exacting an emotional W for Ron Rivera. The motivation should be with Seattle, who should have a point to prove on a national stage.
1 POINT PLAY - Denver Broncos +2.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
In theory this may be my favorite game of the week, but in practice it just doesn’t work as well as it should. Everyone and their grandmother is on the Chargers, despite their recently having problems with teams like New England, Baltimore and Minnesota. What do these three teams have in common with Denver? They were all able to bring the heat on Herbert and make the (still) young QB uncomfortable in the pocket. I hate that Denver’s O-LIne isn’t in prime position to stop LA’s pass rush, but on what looks to me like a dodgy board, I’ll still endorse what I think is the right side.
BONUS PLAY - San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 49.5
This play feels more tenuous than it otherwise would thanks to the Vikings injury report. I’m vaguely concerned that Minnesota could be without almost the entirety of their starting defensive line, but I think the Vikings are generally well-equipped to slow what SF does offensively. Though the game turned into a shootout in the second half, we saw the Vikings have some success against a similar west-coast style offense in Green Bay last week. The Niners offense is efficient, but certainly doesn’t light the world on fire with Jimmy G under center. I see these two franchises and I think sturdy defense, I think we stay in the lower 20s on both sides here.
Dan’s Picks
5 POINT PLAY - Colts +3 vs Buccaneers
How can you not root for Jonathan Taylor? The 2nd year running back from Wisconsin has moved himself into the thick of the MVP race with the incredible stretch run he is currently on. Now he gets the best run defense in the league. Tampa Bay has only let up 100 yards on the ground once this year (Khalil Herbert of the Bears). However Carson Wentz has 6 games this year with 2 or more touchdowns and 0 turnovers and the Tampa Bay pass defense isn’t anything special. Wentz will have to me efficient this week if Indy is going to keep their hot streak going. Tampa Bay? After a couple tough games the Bucs got a perfect right game last week against the awful New York Giants. Tampa (0-5 ATS) on the road this season needs to string some wins together if they want to stay in contention for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. After this Sunday, Tampa only has 1 game left with a team with a .500 or better record to date so I expect them to come out focused and play one of their better games. Bottom line I’ll take the home team who’s red hot with a red hot running back catching 3 points.
4 POINT PLAY - Steelers +3.5 at Cincinnati
Steelers losers of 2 straight are desperate for a win. A win would put them right back in the discussion to win the division and would avoid getting swept by the Bengals this year. Mike Tomlin referred to this game as a elimination game and I think the team will feed off his urgency. The Steelers hope to have some people back on defense although Joe Haden has been downgraded to doubtful. Pittsburgh must limit Cincinnati’s and their big play offense mainly because the Steelers are not built to go toe to toe scoring wise with just about anyone in the league. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS as dogs this year and I expect the Steelers defense to play good enough to give Big Ben a chance to win the game late in what should be a nail biter until the end.
3 POINT AND PROP PLAY OF THE WEEK:
Michael Pittman anytime TD (+150)
I think Tampa sells out to stop Taylor leaving some nice one on one matchups on the outside for Pittman against a mediocre to bad secondary. Tampa also should be able to put up points in this game meaning Indy will have to keep up, I expect a good day from Pittman on Sunday.
2 POINT PLAY - Falcons -1.5 at Jacksonville
Atlanta, 0 touchdowns in its last two weeks. Jacksonville has only scored 23 points or more 1 this year and on top of the Trevor Lawrence 0 touchdowns in his last 3 games!! Who will prevail in this matchup of high powered offenses?! I’ll take Matty Ice to finally breakout and get back on track after some pitiful performances over the past 2 weeks. Atlanta is realistically only one game out of the wildcard so this is a must win and I think they’ll be a little more motivated than Jacksonville off the long week of being humiliated on Thursday night football by the Pats.
Tommy’s Picks
Week 11: 2-3 (-3)
Overall: 13-20-1 (-20)
Another week another loss in the 5pt spot. It’s really hurting my overall +/-. I need to sharpen the blades and crack down on this week. Week 12 offers an interesting slate because 3 games have already been played, and it’s the first time in over a month+ that there is no double digit favorite. Hopefully that means we are in store for some good games this weekend. Due to the thanksgiving trifecta we are only going to do 4 plays this weekend. Screw the 1pt play. Without further ado…
5 POINT PLAY
Panthers -2 @ Dolphins
The Panthers are a very different team with Cam Newton under center and Christian Mccafrey healthy behind him. Last week they lost to the Washington Football Team, but that team came to play as Ron Rivera wanted that one. With that being said the Panthers could have easily won it as well. Let’s not forget about the Panthers Defense. Their D is tops in the league and is probably embarrassed from last week. I think multiple turnovers is inevitable. On the other hand the Dolphins just aren’t the same caliber. On Paper the Dolphins team is not bad, but they have not been performing and it’s too late in the season to hope that they will turn it around. Their Oline is trash. I’m taking the better team here as the favorite, let’s hope they play as the better team.
4 POINT PLAY
Chargers vs Broncos under 48
I need some help here with my picks due to my poor overall season performance. My help will be coming in the form of mathematics. This pick will simply be based on % of these two teams over the course of this season. Here we go….The 2021 chargers score 26 points per game. The Broncos allow 18.3. The average of that 22.15. The Broncos score 20 and the Chargers allow 26.5. The average of that is 23.25. The total based on the average would be 23.25 to 22.15 for a total of 45.4 (under 48). Digging deeper, the total has gone under in 8 of 10 Broncos games and 4 out of 5 games at home. That’s an 80% clip. The chargers under has hit in 6 of 10 games and it’s 3 out of 4 on the road. That’s a 75% clip. Tik Tok also told me to bet the unders in division games after week 10 (even though I’m breaking that rule with my 3pt play). Tik tok trends means it’s a 100% clip. All this Math and this game is going to end up being the highest scoring game in NFL history. But I’ll be happy with my under.
3 POINT PLAY
New York Giants total point over 20.5
Bye Jason Garrett! It’s about time. As a Giants fan I’ve been saying that Garrett has been holding this offense back. This season was supposed to be the year to truly evaluate Daniel Jones, but it’s hard to evaluate someone when you don’t get the run game going and just do short 5-10 yard routes all season. Freddie Kitchens is now doing the play calling and he should really open up the “cook book” in this game and for the remainder of the season. Kitchens lead the league in deep routes called by % last season. Jones is coming off his worst individual game of the season. Giants will be home, should be healthy, and should be opening it up. It’s time for Kenny Golladay to start earning his pay. I like the overall over as well as the Eagles have been scoring a lot and that probably won’t stop here.
2 POINT PLAY
Two team teaser (+6)
Patriots-1 vs Titans
Steelers +9.5 at Bengals
This bet just makes a lot of sense to me. The Patriots have this game against the Titans, and then the Bills before going into their Bye. Things are so quiet surrounding the Patriots that they are too quiet. Coach Bill is going to want this game here to be playing for the division lead against Buffalo next week. He will have Mac Jones and the boys ready to go. The Titans on the other hand are down their top 3 options on offense and don’t really have anywhere proven to go to. The reason I like the tease here is that the the Titans have covered and actually won all 5 games they were underdogs this season. The Steelers on the other hand will be looking for revenge from week 3 where they lost 24-10 to the Bengals. They actually probably should have won that game as they had the Bengals beat in both yards and time of possession by a significant margin. I just can’t see the Steelers losing to the Bengals twice in the same season. Mike Tomlin and Big Ben are going to try and make a run for it here and I like their odds. Joe Haden being inactive for the Steelers is bad especially against the Bengals receiving core, but Tj watt is back and will wreak havoc. Haden not playing is my reason for the tease.
Nick’s Picks
I will end us off here. Let me remind you that I hit two out of three and gave a bonus hit on Thursday. I’m not sure what you want to do with that information, that is on you. If you want to see it as riding a hot hand STILL in week 12 then so be it. I am locked in right now and here are your winners for today.
5 POINT PLAY - Buccaneers -3
Do not fall for the trap here. The Colts had a phenomenal win last week and Jonathon Taylor looks unstoppable. Let me tell you about one of maybe two people on this planet that have a tendency to ruin everyone’s fun. Tom Brady is coming to town and if the public is smashing the Colts at home here, he’s here to take your money too. I also know what Brady looks like down the stretch in playoff races. I expect a full Buccs attack here and a complete Colts trap. I am smashing the Buccs as my 5 Pointer today. In this game, I love Dan’s prop with a Michael Pittman TD. I do see Tampa Bay selling out to stop Taylor and Pittman will score. Great value with that prop today.
4 POINT PLAY - Bengals -3.5
Did you not see this coming? If you have been following, I pretty much take the Bengals every week. Something about this young, feisty team. I think now is the time for them to surpass the Steelers in the division. The Steelers are fading out one year at a time. Ben is a First-Ballot Hall of Famer but his time is running thin. A hard-nose AFC North matchup is going to end with some disappointed Steelers fans today. Give me the Bengals once again.
3 POINT PLAY - Jaguars +2
I see a young, hungry Jaguars team taking on a crusty, stale Falcons team. A Falcons team that can’t score, can’t run clean plays, takes bone-headed penalties, and overall does not look good on any sides of the ball. I will be light on the money line and I love two points here for the Jaguars. Not many things are going right for Atlanta lately and it may be time to start looking towards a new future for them. Nonetheless, 2 points in Jacksonville is the move here.
2 POINT PLAY 49ers -3.5
3.5 is a brutal number for this game but the Vikings have a plethora of injuries on defense. Since the whole questioning of Kyle Shanahan being a bad coach a few weeks back the 9ers have found some mojo. The offense has looked a lot better and Deebo Samuel looks unstoppable. I have had a ton of faith in the Vikings the last few weeks but I think they may flop a bit in San Fran.