NFL WEEK 14 Spitball Picks

Happy Sunday everyone and happy Week 14.  Hope all of your final weeks of fantasy football go as you need because all of us, one way or another, need some help.  Now let’s move away from that junk and on to the more important thing, our picks.  These divisions are tightening and every game is getting a little more intense.  This season has been full of curveballs with teams overperforming, underperforming, funky scheduling and everything in between.  Someone please explain to me why there are MULTIPLE TEAMS with bye weeks on week 14.  With that said, let’s dive right into the thick of it starting with Tommy. 

Tommy’s Picks

Week 13 recap: 1-4 (-7)

Overall: 15-27-1 (-32)

I should start selling my picks for people to fade. It’s crazy how cold I could be. Not only am I missing overall but the 5pt confidence play is absolutely killing me. I need to string together some good weeks here in order to try and climb back to even. Week 14 here we go…

5 POINT PLAY - Cowboys at WFT under 48

This is actually a huge game on today’s slate. The Washington football team has been scorching hot of late especially on the defensive side of the ball. To some this team was the favorite to win the NFC east before the season but through the first two months their defense was atrocious and any hopes of the division became an after thought. Now all of a sudden we find ourselves in December with Ron Rivera and the WFT playing the Cowboys in what is almost a must win if the WFT wants a shot at the division. Say what you want about the WFT offense and Taylor Heinickie, but their oline is stout and their run game has been the main reason for their success. Defense and run game is a simple formula for success in this league and right now the WFT have that. On the other side of the field the Cowboys are coming off a nice win against the Saints, but overall I still feel as though they haven’t found their identity. The home team given 4 points is way to much and I always feel as though the public influences any line involving the Cowboys. Due to this I think the smart play here is the under as I think this game will be close and for that to happen the WFT defense will need to keep the Cowboys from lighting up the scoreboard. 

4 POINT PLAY - Bills at Buccaneers over 53.5

This is the highest total on today’s slate so Vegas is expecting some points here and so am I. Gonna rely on some statistics/trends from the current season for this one. Any time the Bills scored less than 20 points in a game this season they have come back to score at least 30 in their next game. Also the Bills on the road this season have scored 35, 38, 31, 6, 45, 31. Aside from the flop against the Jaguars those are some pretty impressive #’s. The Buccaneers on the other hand lowest total at home this season is 30. Add all these trends to the fact that both these teams are super bowl contenders which should make this extremely entertaining. Why wouldn’t you want to root for points here. 

3 POINT AND PROP PLAY - Austin Hooper over 33.5 receiving yards

Cleveland’s 3 headed tight end committee is down to 1 head this weekend as David Njoku and Harrison Bryant are both out. We are now left with Austin Hooper as the only option, and luckily for us it’s against the Ravens defense who ranks 30th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. The ravens also just took a big blow to their secondary with Marlon Humphrey being hurt. Due to this they may turn to using their linebackers more in deeper coverage which may open up the middle of the field/short passes for Austin Hooper. With Dan being “retired” I had to keep his tight end prop pick afloat here at spitball and I believe this one is a layup. I’m going to sprinkle some dogecoin earnings on Austin Hooper receptions and TD as well :).

2 POINT PLAY - Rams +2.5 at Cardinals 

I have picked against the cardinals twice this season and have lost both times. So third times the charm? One of those picks was the Rams over the Cards in week 4 and my explanation was…” No explanation here. Rams are good at everything. Ride the wave.” I think my cockiness in that week was a foreshadow to this in that the Rams now sit 2 games behind the cardinals and need this one for a chance at the division and maybe even a first round bye. Aaron Donald please win me one here. 

 1 POINT PLAY  - Ravens +2.5 at Browns 

Ravens have covered in 4 straight against the Browns and the last time out Lamar Jackson threw 4 interceptions but they still figured out a way to win. Ravens as underdogs is influenced by being on the road of course but also due to the injuries in their defensive backfield. I personally don’t think that matters too much in this matchup as we haven’t really seen Baker throw the ball since his rookie season. The browns rely heavily on their ground game. Lamar Jackson is also just due. He has not had an explosive Lamar Jackson like game in a almost 2 months now so it is time for one here.

Nick’s Picks

5 POINT PLAY - Washington Football Team +6.5

Listen folks, I have been all aboard the Cowboys train this year.  The Washington Football Team has been on a sneaky run here.  They are also the only team in this division that can give the Cowboys a run.  I have no faith little-to-no faith in Taylor Heinicke as a Quarterback in the NFL but I feel this team will keep this game close.  In the end I think the Cowboys pull off a really close one, maybe a last second field goal.  A big NFC East matchup I am taking the points here. 

4 POINT PLAY - Bills @ Buccaneers OVER 52.5

I’m sure I’ll get this wrong, and starting off like that with a 4 point play is probably horrible, but PLEASE give me the points here.  Obviously a matchup that can be considered “Game of the Week,” and two teams that have Super Bowl Aspirations but I love this over.  The Game should be phenomenal, in Florida, two MVP candidate Quarterbacks, let’s have some fun.  This is also a tremendous game for the Bills so I expected the best Bills to show up today. 

3 POINT PLAY - Chargers -9

You’ve heard me say it before, attack a backup Quarterback.  The Giants do not look good at all right now.  They look like they don’t really have a plan for the Quarterback position.  I see a hungry Chargers team with a chance to make a run at a division that 99.99% of football fans took the Chiefs to win.  I think the Chargers win convincingly here. 

2 POINT PLAY - Bengals +2

I bet this team every week, in a playoff race, getting two points at home, come on now.  I’m also expecting a big week from Joe Burrow after having some flukey turnovers last week.

1 POINT PLAY - Lions +11.5

Give me the points here. I was pretty high on the Broncos before the year started and I wasn’t right about them.  Their wins have not been convincing and their losses look ugly.  This team does have talent and is a few pieces away but I don’t believe they should be 11.5 point favorites against anyone.  Now enter a Lions team that has barely any talent but looks like a bunch of hungry pitbulls every time they take the field.  Dan Campbell has these guys play with fire although many times sloppy and unorganized.  

Brian’s Picks 

5 POINT PLAY - Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ Washington Football Team

Not 100% certain why I thought last week was a bloodbath for me, but sometimes it doesn’t hurt to keep yourself humble during the week.  Despite my strongest inkling to the contrary, last week was another blow-away week for myself and my beloved wagon.  4-1 on week 13 keeps our pockets deep for what I’ve again surmised as a brutal week for handicappers.  Didn’t start out that way, as a matter of fact, somewhere around Wednesday, I would have looked you dead in the eye and said “I love this card.”  Injury reports and perceived sharp-$$ advantages have dwindled in recent days, and in some cases drifted to some truly bizarre places.  Yet, the numbers are the numbers.  Stats are supposed to surprise you.  I decided to play it somewhat in the middle for my five point play.  Though pro money was early on Washington this week, that lean has reverted to Dallas as the Cowboys injury report has looked more and more fortuitous as the days go by.  Look for the Cowboys deep air attack to exploit a porous Washington secondary.

4 POINT PLAY - Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 @ Tennessee Titans

Hold your nose boys, we’ve got a stinker.  Prior to the season I really believed in Tennessee.  Mike Vrabel, a good, solid, Ohio State man, will always get my bet to rise amongst the slop so long as he has a fully operational offense.  Yeah, sometimes best laid plans go astray.  Speaking of which, Urban Meyer has brought an absolute dumpster fire upon Duvall.  It pains me to say it, Urban and I have a long, celebrated history of shared-excellence, a National Championship, a Rose Bowl, seven glorious victories against the most miserable hack of an educational institution this country has ever known.  No I’m still not over it.  Only about 340 more days to go…

My brain isn’t broken, I swear.  Yes, I took the Texans last week, I disavow that.  Something you must learn very early on, is that a bet simply doesn’t count if you disavow it.  Sure you still have to pay your bookie and explain to the wife why you’ve been sitting catatonically in the car idling for 90 minutes, but just call it a stupid tax and move on.  Same logic applies here.  Tennessee has done very little to make me believe they can cover this kind of a spread, even amid reports that Meyer’s kingdom is sinking into the Everglades.  Could Jacksonville quit on the ol’ ball coach 10 minutes in?  You bet, but while I take a number two I’m reminded that I like to live dangerously.  I’ll stay…

3 POINT PLAY - Chicago Bears +11.5 @ Green Bay Packers

Like Bill Belichick in a snow squall, we’re embracing all the trash today.  Try as I might to convince myself otherwise, I truly believe everything is working in the Bears favor tonight.  Well, Aaron Rodgers and the fact that GB is 10x more talented than the Bears is certainly SOMETHING working against me, but who’s counting?  Just go with me here.  The Packers last played two weeks ago, handing Matt Stafford his career and the Rams’ Super Bowl odds on a platter.  Then Green Bay goes on a bye week while the Bears come out looking completely incompetent vs. the Cardinals.  Green Bay has already beaten the Bears, and they come up next week on Lamar Jackson and a Ravens team hungry to prove they’re still a contender.  All of this moved an early line of -11 to -12.5 at the start of the week.  Since then we’ve received word that Justin Fields is starting, Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson will be returning (Robinson perhaps more in theory than in practice) and the pros have backed the Bears.  All the good news is with Chicago, and we’re still getting a win on the key # of 11.

2 POINT PLAY - 7 POINT TEASER:  LAC-NYG over 36.5/DEN-DET over 35/NYJ-NO over 35.5

Forgive me for being so convoluted here, I just can’t help myself.  Everybody knows I love two kinds of totals:  under’s in games with high totals and over’s between two hapless, dogshit offenses.  Admittedly, Chargers vs. Giants doesn’t fit this mold exactly, as the Chargers are clearly able to put up points with the best of them.  However, two key factors remain at play in that contest.  One, both LA starting WRs, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, figure to be out of action today.  Two, my Giants fan father, a great and honest man of age to have experienced NFL Championship games at Yankees Stadium, firmly believes Mike Glennon is one of the worst QBs to ever step under-center for the New York Football Giants.  The poor man was actually intrigued to see what a character like Jake Fromm could do today, but alas, the Giants are trying to win football games here…

Long story short, you don’t have to squint too hard to call LAC-NYG a game featuring two non-existent offenses, but the pro’s have come out in full force in favor of over 43.5.  No side has taken more cold-hard cash than Broncos-Lions over 42, and we all know I have to bust the teaser somehow by throwing in a game that will fuck it all to hell.  Insert Jets-Saints, please.

1 POINT PLAY - Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens

After a thorough debate over which 2.5 to play between this game and CAR-ATL, I decided to go with the less ambiguous game.  Both the Browns and Panthers have seen $$ from pros, but the Panthers $$ has come in only after sharps bet the Falcons at +3.5.  The Panthers are certainly doing all they can to win games as HC Matt Rhule is feeling pressure to save his job.  The team went as far as to fire OC Joe Brady, a once-hot HC candidate in his own right and the former steward of LSU’s National Championship offense.  I mean, why wouldn’t they?  The guy couldn’t salvage the likes of Sam Darnold and Cam Newton.  All of this seems totally reasonable, right????

Sorry, couldn’t help myself.  The Browns are just a much sturdier play between the two.  I have an inkling that the Ravens are the better team, but who really knows?  When was the last time this Baltimore team as truly healthy?  We won’t find out what a fully-operational Ravens team looks like today, as their defensive backfield remains in shambles.  The Browns are coming off a well-placed bye week that may just provide Baker the R&R he needed to take advantage of both Peters and Humphrey missing today’s game.