Pac 12 Preview
The Opening:
The Wild West should be a fun ride in 2022, as the PAC-12 looks to end its 5 year College Football Playoff drought. This very well could be the year it finally happens. The top of the Pac-12 is LOADED with heavy hitters and have 3 legit College Playoff contenders. Lincoln Riley takes over at Southern California and brings with him, without a doubt, the most dynamic group of offensive weapons in the country. Oregon saw Mario Cristobal bolt for ‘The U’ but he leaves a roster stacked with talent behind him. Dan Lanning will take over, fresh off a national championship as the defensive coordinator from Georgia, and has the pieces to keep the Ducks in the upper echelon of college football. Then their’s the Utes of Utah, a team that has more balance then any team in the conference and right up their with any team in the country. The PAC-12 will be a conference worth monitoring this season, so be ready to stay up late for those ‘Pac-12 after-dark’ games, or be sure to set your DVRs.
The Thick of it:
The big three teams in the PAC-12 will all play at least one MASSIVE out of conference game, that will play a intricate part in configuring the College Football Playoff Committee’s outlook on the conference. Oregon opens up the season in Atlanta verse the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs, while Utah will travel to the swamp to take on the Florida Gators. How both of those teams perform in those games could set the tone on how the conference is viewed for the entirety of the season. Southern Cal will host Notre Dane the last week of the season, a game that could determine both teams fate on whether or not they make the playoff. Their is no denying the opportunity for the perception of the PAC-12 to drastically change from years past with the way the schedule is set up in 2022.
Utah won its first Pac-12 title in school history last year and put up a great showing in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State. Utah was a few plays away from beating the Buckeyes, falling 48-45. Can the Utes carry last years momentum into 2022? Gone is all world linebacker Devin Lloyd and wide receiver Britain Covey, but up and coming quarterback Cameron Rising returns. Along with Rising is the return of running back Tavion Thomas, who ran for over 1,100 yards and 21 touchdowns. The two-headed monster at tight end (Dalton Kincaid and Brant Kuithe) return combining for 86 catches, 1,121 yards and 14 touchdowns from a season ago. But who will emerge on the outside for Utah? That could be the teams Achilles heel this season. The defense has talent, but only returns 5 starters. The Utes have a very tough start to the season. The opener in Gainesville could set the tone for their season but keep an eye on their matchup at UCLA. The Bruins will have a bye week following their matchup with Utah while the Utes will be coming off a game against Oregon State (who beat them last year) and then travel to Southern Cal the week after.
A coaching change at Oregon headlined the offseason for the Ducks, but their is plenty of talent still in Eugene. Oregon will have by far the best offensive line and front 7 defensively in the conference, but will need skill players to emerge on both sides of the ball. Bo Nix has transferred over from Auburn and is reunited with Offensive Coordinator Kenny Dillingham, who helped Nix win SEC Freshmen of The Year in 2019. Dillingham will look to inject Oregon with explosiveness on offense as the Ducks only had 10 plays of 40-yards or more a season ago. Dan Lanning will have plenty to work with on defense with more than enough talent upfront including Brandon Doris, Justin Flowe and Noah Sewell, all potential first round NFL Draft picks. Oregon will play what is basically a true road game in Atlanta against the defending National Champion Georgia Bulldogs, but the schedule is manageable from there. The Ducks host BYU, Stanford, UCLA, Washington and Utah at home this season. Oregon is without a doubt the heavy favorite to come out of the Pac-12 North.
The biggest hire in the college football landscape this off-season by far was Lincoln Riley. With Riley comes an absolute overhaul of the roster. 15 new players transferred into the USC program, most of them absolute stars. Over from Oklahoma comes Heisman candidate quarterback Caleb Williams, along with highly touted wide receiver Mario Williams. Bilentikoff Winner Mario Addison comes over from Pittsburgh along with Brenden Rice from Colorado (Jerry Rices son). The offensive talent infusion doesn’t stop there, running back Travis Dye from Oregon, who ran for 1,200-plus yards and 16 touchdowns, joins Stanford transfer and top running back Austin Jones. The offensive fire power for the Trojans is the best in the country, but can the offensive line allow for them to be successful? USC will have to make massive progression on both sides of the ball up front to have the success that is now expected of them this season. Southern Cal got some solid transfers in the portal on defense and are hoping that Domani Jackson can have freshmen year much like Derek Stingley had his freshmen season at LSU. Big time recruit, defensive end, Korey Foreman looks to bounce back after a disappointing freshmen year, to give the Trojans pass rush something they’ve been missing (only 21 sacks last year). The expectations are high in Southern California this season and the conference schedule isn’t a walk in the park. They miss playing Oregon this year but their 3 toughest conference games on the road ( at Oregon State, at Utah and at UCLA) before hosting Notre Dame to end the season. USC has playoff potential with the star studded roster but key question marks up front against powerful, physical teams like Utah and Notre Dame specifically, must be figured out in order to make dreams of a playoff birth a reality.
The Picks:
The 3 headed monster atop the Pac-12 makes a lot of the future bets tough calls. USC has the easiest schedule and the most talent on offense, but lack the physical play up front on both sides of the ball. Oregon has the best offensive line and defensive front 7 in the conference but lack proven playmakers on both sides of the ball at the skill positions. Utah has the most balanced team in the conference but has to replace key leaders from last years team and has the toughest schedule of the bunch. USC and Utah will battle for the South while Oregons biggest competition in the North may be Oregon State (more on them in a minute). I think USC has the easier schedule to navigate in conference play as they miss Oregon this season and only leave the state of California 3 times all season. The Trojans win total sits at 9.5 and they’re the favorites to win the conference at (+220) on DraftKings. I don’t see value on either of those plays but I could look to play USC to make the playoff at (+450). If everything goes right for the Trojans and they fill some key holes up front and on defense, they may only have 1 or 2 losses going into the PAC-12 Championship Game. Again the top of the Pac-12 is too much of a toss up to bet with any type of confidence.
Although the excerpt above screams uncertainty, their are a few things I will definitely be playing out of the Pac-12. The first and one of my favorite plays of the season (although paying a high price for it) is Oregon State over 5.5 wins (-180) on FanDuel. The Beavers schedule is brutal (so why the F are you taking over wins), but this Oregon State program is on the rise. The first two weeks of the season they host Boise State followed by a trip to Fresno State. Back to back games with USC and Utah follow shortly their after, and of course the Beaves finish the season hosting Oregon. However, this is a team that beat Utah, USC and Oregon last season! The Beavers are strong up front with 4 returning offensive linemen, and 10 upper class-men in the defensive rotation (including 9 returning starters). Oregon State will have a strong running game with a stable of backs and QB Chance Nolan has some wheels of his own. I love the experience of Oregon State and the trajectory of the program in recent years. Other than taking over 5.5 wins, I will be throwing a few bucks on Oregon State to win the conference. If the Ducks struggle and the Beavers can win a couple of big games and win the North, their is a ton of upside with the line being (+3500).
The Arizona Wildcats went 1-11 last season, (so why the f are we talking about them) meaning theirs really only room for improvement. The 2nd year under Head Coach Jedd Fisch should be a lot better. They’ve infused the roster with a ton of transfers from the portal and signed the #25 ranked recruiting class in the country. They added transfer QB and the PAC-12 Offensive Freshmen of the Year in Jayden de Laura from Washington State, along with a deeper more talented core at wide receiver and tight end. De Laura actually led the conference with 23 passing touchdowns and was ranked 2nd in passing yards with 2,796. Arizona has a brutal 5 game stretch (home vs. Oregon, at Washington, home vs. USC, then at Utah and Ucla) but I think the Wildcats actually sneak a win somewhere in there! Bottom line this team is much more talented then a year ago and with their win total only at 2.5 at (-140) on Caesars, I’m pounding the Wildcats over wins.
