Big 12 Preview
The Intro
This will be the last season of the Big 12 as we know it, with the addition of four schools (UCF, Cincinnati, BYU and Houston) coming in 2023, and the conference is more wide open then ever before. After Oklahoma had a strangle hold on the conference for the last decade, the Sooners streak of 6 straight conference titles was snapped last year by the Baylor Bears.
Off to Southern Cal is Lincoln Riley and company, leaving plenty of question marks and new faces in Norman. Year 2 of the Steve Sarkasian era at Texas is here and expectations are high. Mike Gundy and the steady Cowboys of Oklahoma State look to return to the Big 12 championship after a 12 win season a year ago. Dave Aranda’s incredible turnaround of the Baylor program, will defend its crown as the Big 12 will be the most entertaining conference in America this year.
Quick thoughts:
Long time Clemson Defensive Coordinator Brent Venables takes over at Oklahoma where defense, not offense, will be the foundation of the new look Sooners in future seasons heading into the SEC. However, for this season, Oklahoma will be relying on UCF transfer quarterback Dillion Gabriel to lead the offense as many players transferred out of the program when Lincoln Riley departed to USC. Oklahoma has a very favorable schedule with home games verse Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State. A trip to Morgantown, sandwiched between contests with Baylor and Oklahoma State, could be a big time trap game for the Sooners. The Mountaineers had Oklahoma on the ropes last year but sneaked away with a 16-13 win. Oklahoma could be the biggest wildcard in the conference and maybe the country. I could easily see Venables kicking the defense into gear and veteran Dillon Gabriel, along with former UCF and Ole Miss Offensive Coordinator Jim Lebby reconnecting and lighting up scoreboards, leading Oklahoma to the playoffs. I could also see Oklahoma struggling with a ton of change both schematically and personnel wise.
Oklahoma State’s 12-win season last year was nothing short of impressive. The Cowboys were a play away from winning the Big 12 title and even possibly sneaking into the College Football Playoff. A massive win at Bedlam was also an accomplishment, beating the Sooners for the first time since 2014. The Cowboys bring back QB Spencer Sanders, but only 9 other starters will be back from a year ago. Sanders, a 3 year starter, will need to limit his mistakes (40 career turnovers) as Oklahoma State will also have to replace Defensive Coordinator Jim Knowles, who is now off to Ohio State. Derek Mason comes over from Auburn but will need to replace 7 starters on defense. The schedule isn’t all sunshine and rainbows either. Road games to Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma are on tap. Keep an eye on that November 12th matchup with Iowa State, the Cowboys could be caught looking ahead to Bedlam the week after.
The reigning Big 12 champions had the biggest turn around season in recent memory. After going 2-7 in 2020, the Baylor Bears went 12-2, winning the Big 12 championship and the Sugar Bowl. Once again the Bears will be led up front in 2022, returning 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen (all 5 projected starters are seniors), and their entire defensive line. Baylor will have as much experience as anyone in the conference on both sides of the ball. However, the worry about Baylor will be their offensive skill positions. The Bears don’t return a single receiver who had more than 10 receptions and Sophomore QB Blake Shapen, who played great in spots last season when called upon, only attempted a total of 86 passes last season. Opposing defenses will be more prepared for Shapen come 2022. The schedule is brutal. Road trips to BYU, Iowa State, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Texas won’t make repeating as Big 12 champs an easy task. With that being said, if Baylor can find some fire power on the outside and Shapen continues to progress, the Bears will be right there toward the top of the pack in the Big 12.
The Picks:
The Big 12, as previously stated will be nothing short of entertaining this season with so many question marks all throughout the conference. I’m a believer in Texas this season, picking them to come out on top of the conference, but their are a few other things I’m looking to play.
The Kansas State Wildcats are a dark horse team that I’m buying this season. They bring back plenty of experience with 14 returning starters ( 18 upperclassman) and have one of the most electric players in the country at running back in Deuce Vaughn. Transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez from Nebraska has tons of experience and will form a two headed monster on the ground for the Wildcats. Vaughn tallied 1,404 yards rushing last year and scored 22 touchdowns. Pair that with Martinez who has 35 career rushing touchdowns and the Wildcats will be tough to stop on the ground. Kansas State also has a fury of solid pass rushers bound to play on Sunday’s in Felix Anudike-Uzomah ( 2nd in Big 12 last year with 11 sacks), Nate Matalack and Khalid Duke. Kansas State will be a team you do not want to be caught sleeping on this season, they have the talent and experience to beat anyone on their schedule.
I’ll be playing Kansas State over 6.5 wins (-145) on Fan Duel and although I picked Texas to win the conference, I’ll be throwing a few bucks on K-State to win the conference at (+1400) on Draft Kings as a long shot play. I’ll also be monitoring the number on total wins for both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. I think both teams have potential to go under 9.5/ 9 wins, but the price as of today is too steep. I’m leaning toward the Cowboys under 9 wins but, waiting to see if I can get some better odds by holding out (currently priced at -180). If the line jumps to 9.5 it’ll instantly be one of my favorite plays of the season.
