NFL WEEK 17 Spitball Picks
NFL Week 17 is full of utter chaos, this is what we live for at the end of every season. So many ‘what-ifs,’ tie break scenarios, and important matchups. The playoff picture is utter madness and we all love it. If you are in your fantasy championship, good luck even though nobody cares. Clearly, I’m still very upset about getting bumped out. Also, one of the more meaningless games, but Tom Brady is back at Metlife and all of us Jets fans are thrilled about it. We were blessed to watch him absolutely shred our lives for 20+ straight years, and we couldn’t be happier to welcome him back in a Buccaneers uniform. Cardinals @ Cowboys is a very interesting matchup loaded with playoff implications. What’s funny is both teams are playoff teams and no one (except Cowboys fans) knows if either team is even good. Nonetheless, all of us degenerates need winners, so let’s dive into the old nitty-gritty. Hope you all had a great holiday week, but the boys are back, let’s do this. I will kick us off.
Nick’s Picks
5 POINT PLAY - Packers -13 vs Vikings
I have been riding the Vikings to cover almost weekly. Honestly, I can’t believe I am saying these words, but without Kirk Cousins, I think the Vikings are virtually hopeless in Green Bay. The magic is happening, I said it before the season as the Packers were my Super Bowl pick. I still don’t know if Aaron Rodgers is mad, but the Rodgers F-U tour is full steem ahead. The Vikings will start Oregon State legend Sean Mannion and he is in for a long day. If I were a backup NFL Quarterback (which I am not), one of the last places I would want to get thrown in to start is Green Bay in January. I am following my ‘attack backup QBs’ theory, Packers dominate today, and the F-U Super Bowl Tour rolls on.
4 POINT PLAY - Colts -8 vs Raiders
This is a team I am falling in love with. Absolutely INJECT smash mouth, hard defense, RUN THE DAMN BALL, football into my veins. I have little-to-no faith in the Raiders stopping the Colts run game today even if they know it’s coming. Buckle up the chin straps, here we come, who is tougher. Spoiler, the Colts are. This team has playoff aspirations and the division is within reach. This is another one that should be easy money.
3 POINT PLAY - Washington Football Team +6 vs Eagles
I am going with points here at home. The Football Team plays tough and they will keep this one close. Sometimes, you see teams roll over late in the season when they are 6-9, but not in an NFC East matchup. There is none of that. This one will be close, I believe the Eagles do pull off a victory at the end, but the Football Team covers.
2 POINT PLAY - Cardinals +7 (-120) @ Cowboys
Listen, buying a half a point is OVERRATED. Everyone thinks buying that half point is going to save your day, I really don’t. If you go back and read every week, I don’t do this. I do believe getting this spread to a full 7 will solidify a cover. I also believe that this game will have some sort of funky scoring in it. Yes, this over is juicy, but I have to break the habit of betting the juicy over because I think I’m 0-100 in doing so, including Bama vs Cincy the other day. Enjoy the star power in this one, Dak, Zeke, Ceedee, Parsons, Diggs, Kyler, Ertz, Conner (hopefully), Edmonds, this game is loaded. Give me the points in a fun one.
1 POINT PLAY - 49ers -14 vs Texans
The 49ers have a little bit of Mojo right now. The team looks really strong on both sides of the ball and the offense is clicking. It looks like we are going to get Trey Lace, which is exciting for a ton of reasons, but I’m not shying away. My backup Quarterback theory doesn’t play for a third overall pick. Deebo Samuel and company will make life really easy on the rookie QB. Also, this Texans team is not going into San Francisco and covering, 9ers by a lot.
Tommy’s Picks
Week 16 Recap: 4-1 (+11)
Overall: 27-31-1 (-3)
Last week the picks were not posted as the members of spitball had too much eggnog on Christmas to post the picks Sunday morning, but I personally got my picks in of…
Saqoun Barkley over 13.5 rush attempts
Buccaneers team total over 27.5
Vikings/ rams over 48.5
Falcons -6.5 over lions
Under 37.5 saints vs Dolphins…
They all hit except the falcons. That’s now 3 monster weeks in a row and I've chipped away to come back from -32 all the way to -3. We look to keep it rolling as we enter the New Year!
5 POINT PLAY -
4 team teaser (+13pts)
Buccaneers PK
Cardinals +19.5 at Cowboys
Packers PK vs Vikings
Steelers +16.5 vs Browns
With no Thursday, Saturday, byes, or postponements, we have the fullest of slates this weekend and due to that I want to get a big teaser in so I can have some action on a lot of the games I like. Starting with the Monday night and working back, although it’s not actually official yet, this could be Big Ben’s last game at Heinz field and simply put he isn’t going to lose his last home game especially against the browns. The packers will be playing the Vikings at home with no Kirk Cousins for the Vikings. Just take a look at Rodgers stats vs the Vikings in his career, he won’t let them beat him twice in the same season. The Cowboys just throttles the WFT and have now won 4 straight against quite honestly bad offenses. They get tested this week against the Cardinals whose momentum is the opposite losing 3 straight. The cardinals have been impressive on the road this year covering every game except the fumble against the Lions. Cardinals will need to gain some confidence here with a close game maybe even a W to get ready for the playoffs. Lastly, Brady ain’t losing to the Jets. Book it.
4 POINT PLAY - Saints -6.5 vs Panthers
This one seems like taking candy from a baby. The Panthers are garbage offensively and are so lost without mccafrey. Sam Darnold is getting the start with a hurt oline in front of him going against the Saints incredible defense. I think there is great potential for a shutout here. Saints could be getting some key players back from injury like their starting tackles, but that is still in question and I think it is why the line is sitting where it is. If tomorrow’s injury report is good for the Saints this could jump to near double digits quick. I’m locking it in at -6.5 now. The Panthers season is over where as the Saints still have a shot at the playoffs and I think Sean Payton will have his team do their part in winning to try and get in. Who dat!?
3 POINT PLAY - D.K. Metcalf over 56.5 receiving yards
This season has definitely been a disappointment for DK as he is currently sitting at 846 yards and 9 touchdowns, which in general is pretty good, but I think people and himself thought he would progress even more in his third year after scoring 10 times with over 1300 yards last season. He has has some 2 TD games this season which is always impressive but from a yard perspective he has only topped over 100 receiving yards once! Nobody knows what the future holds for the Seahawks and Russel Wilson, but I think Russ will want to show the Seahawks what they will be missing, or what other teams will be getting by playing lights out over the last two weeks of the season. DK will be a large part of Wilson’s “Farewell?” Tour so I expect him to get a bunch of targets against a subpar lions Defense.
2 POINT PLAY - Rams at Ravens over 46
I haven’t been able to select this trend which I’ve been folllowing for years of a west coast team traveling to the east coast for a 1pm game and taking the over that much this season, but I get a shot in this one. Another factor to consider is that in games against non division opponents the total has gone over 46, 8 out of 10 games for the Rams. The Ravens are 5 out of 10 in that situation, but 4 out of 5 when they are the home team. This trend is 3 out of 6 so far this season. So due to that its only my 2 pt confidence.
1 POINT PLAY - Patriots -16.5 vs Jaguars
This is such a funny spread for a Patriots team that is known for running the ball and playing good defense, but nonetheless here we are. Everyone knows how the Patriots under Belichick do against rookie quarterbacks and the situation in Jacksonville isn’t helping the cause. Their team is just lost. They have nothing to play for and don’t really have anyone on offense to turn to after James Robinson going down last week. It’s always tough to score in Foxborough and for an offense as horrendous as the Jaguars it will be near impossible. I think the Patriots defense will out score the Jaguars. This will give Bill the opportunity to get a little frisky with Mac Jones and let him sling it around a little to get some confidence going into the playoffs. Patriots can name their number in this one….I’m hoping it’s more than 16.5.
Brian’s Picks
5 POINT PLAY - Arizona Cardinals +6.5 @ Dallas Cowboys
Though we’re left to navigate another tough slate due to COVID-protocols, I think we can start 2022 off with some winners. Dallas has already clinched the NFC East. While it’s likely the Cowboys will still compete in order to steal the #1 seed in the conference, the Cardinals clearly need the win more in this situation. The second half of the season has hit Arizona like a ton of bricks. Kyler Murray-for-MVP talk that was once boiling has now vanished into thin air, but the Cardinals will get a boost today. Starting center Rodney Hudson will return, stabilizing what’s been a very sloppy battery of late. Coming off three consecutive losses, I expect Arizona to put their best foot forward today in hopes of getting right before the playoffs.
4 POINT PLAY - Washington Football Team +6 @ Philadelphia Eagles
I liked this game a lot more before the virus ran through Washigton’s locker room, but we’ve earned two more points as a result of the injury report. I’m not sure if this is a bet on Washington so much as it’s a fade of the Eagles. Philly may, in the end, find themselves playing in the postseason, but make no mistake, they’re very much the team that pummeled the lowly Giants last week AND the team that fell to the Giants 13-7 a month ago. There’s always a “box of chocolates,” team in the NFL each season, and few teams fit the billing better than the Eagles. I do think they’re the best of what’s left in the NFC, but I think they’re closer to the 6-9 Washington squad than the 11-4 division champs.
3 POINT PLAY - Seattle Seahawks -8.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Gross game, but trying to stick to the basics here. The public now firmly believes Detroit is a “good” bad team after showing some life down the home stretch of the year. The meat and potatoes gambler has also (The Rock Voice) FINALLLY seen the light on the train wreck that Seattle has become. I didn’t hit on many of my preseason predictions, but foreseeing the Seahawks fall off a cliff was one of my finer moments. Make no mistake, the Wilson-Pete Carroll era in Seattle is winding to a close, but with Tim Boyle heading up north to QB the Goff-less Lions, I think the old Legion of Boom gives the 12th man one more happy memory before limping off into the sunset.
2 POINT PLAY - Miami Dolphins +3 @ Tennessee Titans
Though they’ve perfected the art of winning ugly, the Dolphins are finally pulling their weight the way many thought they would headed into the season. Seven consecutive wins is impressive regardless of who you beat or how you get it done. There will no doubt be questions this offseason whether Tua is really the dude or not, but you can’t say what the Dolphins do isn’t working in the here and now. It’s worth noting that Tenessee *has not* secured a playoff berth as of yet, so they will be motivated to play 60 minutes today. The Titans have had ample time to prepare for this game, yet I still can’t get away from the hot hand. Maybe it’s just me, but the Titans seem to play pretty poorly as a favorite, and I think this type of low-scoring, hard-won defensive battle will favor Brian Flores’ Dolphins.
1 POINT PLAY - Buffalo Bills -14.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Though I really, REALLY wanted to take the 14 being given to thrice Rookie of the Week Zach Wilson, I know if I do that I’ll end up lying in a pile of my own filth as the Bucsaw lays waste to my team, 38-6. I won’t put that evil on us, Ricky Bobby. The Bills are still fighting to clinch the AFC East, and though the Falcons are mathematically alive in the NFC, I don’t think they’re equipped to give Buffalo much of a fight today. This one feels like a 21-0 at the end of one kinda game.