Fixing a Hole: MLB Trade Deadline Pt 1 - Offense
Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez / USA Today Sports
It’s fair to say both the Mets and Yankees have had uneven starts to the 2021 MLB campaign. The Mets find themselves 4.5 games ahead of the pace in the National League East with 61 games gone, boasting a starting rotation that is currently first in baseball in ERA, WHIP, H/9 and HR/9. For all the good that has come on the mound, and generally in the win column, the team is currently mired in the bottom half of every major offensive category, making the story of 60 games as much about what could have as it is the final results. The offensive struggles of their crosstown rivals have been no struggle to anyone within earshot of the New York papers, as the assumedly-mighty Yankees have volleyed between hot and cold streaks to an off-pitch tune of 36-32. Both teams will tread through the next six weeks in complete “buy” mode, with the Mets looking to fortify their position and the Yankees aiming to make up ground lost.
What may proceed as a contentious battle between two teams with very similar needs is sure to provide fans of both clubs with plenty to talk about in the coming weeks. While it’s still difficult to speculate (in some cases) which teams will break down and decide to sell when the trade deadline comes, a great number of teams have already distinguished themselves as a lost cause. The Orioles, Tigers, Twins, Rangers, Marlins, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks are all ten or more games under .500, with only Miami sitting less than 10 games back of the division-leading Mets by the thinnest of margins (9.5). There’s little to no doubt that this collection of also-rans is going to sell, and it would seem logical to assume that teams like the Nationals, Royals and Mariners may too decide to re-route to 2022 if momentum doesn’t turn quickly.
No one need ask the Mets if they’re looking to buy. As stated, the team is in first place in what has been a surprisingly-weak NL East. Jacob deGrom is recording one of the greatest seasons by a starting pitcher in recent history, despite a growing number of ailments that while concerning, seem never to derail the league’s preeminent ace. He hasn’t shouldered the burden entirely on his own, with supporting starters Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker both having career-years through this point in the season. Though it’s no guarantee we’ll ever see this trio deployed at full force with a healthy Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco, the prospect of having even four of the five is too-tantalizing not to prepare for accordingly.
Though the Mets will certainly look to their rather illustrious I.L. for offensive reinforcements, there is no doubt the organization must invest in building a more-lethal lineup to compliment their dominant rotation. Having no definitive answer in CF on their best day, would the Mets be willing to make a Godfather-offer to the Orioles for Cedric Mullins? Across town, Yankees fans have been clamoring for the Arizona’s Ketel Marte for a month, but if he’s available (which he shouldn’t be), could the Mets swoop in for the versatile switch-hitter? Both the O’s and the Diamondbacks should see both of these players as part of their rebuild, not facilitators of the rebuild. Yet, for a team 29th in runs scored, the electricity either player could provide is enough reason for the Mets to make the call. Though Marlins CF Starling Marte would certainly make sense as a rental acquisition for the Mets, it’s fair to wonder if Miami would levy a bit of an NL East tax on their division rival.
Logistically, the archaic lack of a DH in the National League makes getting better difficult for the Mets. How desperately could this team use a professional masher like Nelson Cruz? Staying right in Minnesota, Josh Donaldson represents not only the type of talent, but also the kind of energy that could send the Mets back into very dangerous territory. I would get the player and ask questions later, but when healthy, J.D. Davis has earned his position at third base. Though a move to the OF would not be unfathomable for Davis, is this a move the Mets would consider? Sandy Alderson and Steve Cohen may have to be willing to get creative in order to fortify a lineup that desperately needs a 2015 Yoenis Cespedes-like spark.
The trials and tribulations of the Yankees offense has been well-documented on this site. Painstakingly so, at times, this team has sucked the life out of most fans during horrific displays of offense that have out-sucked even the worst of teams in this league. Yet, at the time of publication, the Yankees once again seem to be trending in a good (?) direction, showing a definitive back-bone for the first time all year in a gutty three game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays. Perhaps the Yankees simply needed to play against a team more sloppy than they, but what the hell, we won’t look a gift horse in the mouth right now. Aaron Judge continues to post what would-be an MVP caliber season if not for the likes of Ohtani and Vlad Guerrero Jr., and his $30 million running-mate Giancarlo Stanton has once again found his form, delivering the teams biggest hit of the season to date last night with a go-ahead two-run HR in the 7th inning. Most remarkably of all, one-time pariah Gary Sanchez is punching back at his critics with his most impactful run of play in almost three years.
Earlier this week, general manager Brian Cashman vowed that the Yankees would be looking to buy their way out of this hole, one way or another. Though not explicitly said, it seems as if the team has owner Hal Steinbrenner’s permission to shed their self-imposed shackles of the luxury tax threshold. Yankees fans have rightfully begun to question the team’s direction under its legendary GM, but few doubt his ability to significantly improve this team when given full resources to do so. Like the Mets, the Yankees have a massive hole in CF, though left handed power, speed and baseball IQ are also of desperate and immediate need. The last will certainly be the most difficult to target, but for a team that leads the league in outs made on the base-paths, there must be a greater emphasis on the individual, and not the numbers he’s able to produce according to advanced statistics.
The Yankees figure to be much better-positioned than the Mets to acquire someone such as Starling Marte, if for no other reason than divisional logistics. No, I wouldn’t anticipate owner Derek Jeter will allow any type of discount to his former team, but for a player who currently boasts a 170 wRC+ (a metric which records runs per plate appearance, 100 being average) the Yankees should spare the appropriate expense for a 32 year-old impending FA. If the team is willing to get even more creative still, perhaps this is the year where the Royals would finally entertain a deal for swiss army knife Whit Merrifield. The acquisition of Merrifield has been a long-standing wet dream of many Yankees fans, and while he’s having a decidedly down-year (95 wRC+), he still leads the league in stolen bases and, if acquired, would immediately be the highest run-scorer in the Yankees lineup, two areas of immense need for a team desperate to create more runs. The price would still be steep for such an affordable and versatile player, but the Yankees could certainly afford to meet the cost.
Unfortunately, neither of these players would satisfy the Yankees need for left-handed balance, but one move wouldn’t hinder the other if the team is willing to be appropriately aggressive. Many fans and reporters have suggested Pirates UTL player Adam Frazier as a target, and certainly with a .324 average the left-handed contact hitter would provide a nice boost to a team that is still too-reliant on inconsistent power. Yet, the Yankees tend to get the most out of left-handed hitters who have the ability to take advantage of the short-porch in right field. Perhaps the lowly Diamondbacks would entertain offers for veteran OF David Peralta and UTL man Eduardo Escobar? An even deeper, and possibly more savvy, acquisition could be that of Reds OF Tyler Naquin, who sits in a crowded Cincinnati OF and puts up hard contact %’s akin to Giancarlo Stanton. Don’t believe me?
2021 Soft/Medium/Hard Contact Rates (per Fangraphs.com)
Tyler Naquin: 12.9% / 42.9% / 44.3%
Giancarlo Stanton: 14.4% / 40.8% / 44.8%
These numbers are not an outlier for Naquin, and while the Reds do still find themselves in contention, perhaps they’d be willing to cash in on the $1.5 million they paid to the journeyman OF this past winter.
Speaking of Giancarlo Stanton, if the Yankees are truly willing to take their slugger out of the china cabinet and allow him time in the OF, there’s no telling the possibilities that could open up for improvement. The Yankees could, theoretically, give Colorado a call and build a preposterous infield of DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Trevor Story and Gio Urshela, with Luke Voit primarily manning DH while he works himself through injury issues. The team could also make a play for a damage-machine like Nelson Cruz, who wouldn’t be versatile, but would certainly lend the Yankees lineup a dangerous amount of credibility. The possibilities of what-could-be with Stanton in the OF on a semi-regular basis are tantalizing, and it is imperative that management (who are clearly the agents guiding this decision) allow it to happen.
In the weeks to come, we’ll take a closer look at the market for pitching additions as both clubs continue to push towards the stretch run. We’ll also keep an eye on how the market develops for offensive additions, as those are absolutely the most important moves ahead of both the Yankees and Mets.